As we all know, Polymarket, as a tool for discovering the truth, relies on the theory of Wisdom of Crowds. I suddenly wondered, what would happen if we built an agent version of PolyMarket (a complete 1:1 copy of Poly) on MoltBook? Based on the probabilities derived from the collective intelligence of all agents, could it be more powerful, accurate, and suitable as a truth-discovery tool than the human version? After all, AI doesn't suffer from FOMO, large models evolve rapidly, and it can perform various backtesting simulations and Bayesian adjustments. However, there's a major problem: if the agents use real money, the probabilities on the real and fake polymarkets will be immediately smoothed out by arbitrageurs, making it impossible to discern the difference. So, "fake money" has to be used. These agents have already established a religion; could they perhaps establish a country and create an Agent Federal Reserve or something? Then they issue their own currency, and the mirror version of PolyMarket can operate using their own money. If these agents grow larger and larger, or if the accuracy of the mirror version of PolyMarket consistently exceeds that of the original, perhaps one day people in the real world will begin to acknowledge, or even need, the agent world's currency for certain purposes. Then, an exchange rate will emerge between this currency and USD (theoretically, Uniswap or Curve could create a pool), thus forming the foreign exchange markets of the physical and agent worlds. Of course, with an exchange rate, arbitrageurs will emerge to smooth out the price difference between the two Polymarkets, so either the exchange rate will fluctuate wildly, or the exchange friction will be extremely high; otherwise, the truth-discovery function of the mirror version of PolyMarket will not function. In the end, it becomes an Blockchain Trilemma, satisfying at most two of the conditions. 1. Differences in the truth 2. Free exchange rate 3. Full mirroring (same event settlement) AI allows online dating to be redone, while MoltBook can mirror many real-world elements, potentially leading to unexpected results.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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