Chainfeeds Summary:
Stocks, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies all suffered, creating a pure "liquidity black hole."
Article source:
https://www.techflowpost.com/zh-CN/article/30265
Article Author:
TechFlow TechFlow
Opinion:
TechFlow TechFlow: The market volatility in early February, on the surface, was a panic sell-off triggered by the earnings reports of several companies, but in essence, it was a concentrated release of the gap between high expectations and reality. After the market closed on February 4, AMD delivered a near-perfect report card: revenue and profit exceeded expectations across the board, and CEO Lisa Su even stated in the conference call that the company is entering 2026 with strong momentum. However, the market's focus was not on the performance already achieved, but on the future. AMD's Q1 revenue guidance was priced at $9.8 billion, significantly higher than the Wall Street consensus expectation of $9.37 billion. However, those analysts who were most aggressive and bullish on AI were expecting explosive growth of "over $10 billion." A 2% difference was interpreted as a signal that growth might be starting to slow down. Thus, a typical "expectation kill" occurred: AMD's stock price plummeted 17% in a single day, wiping out tens of billions of dollars in market value, dragging the entire semiconductor sector into deep waters, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling by more than 6%, and companies such as Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital suffering heavy losses. This illustrates a reality: the rise in tech stocks since 2025 is essentially a pricing in the future of AI, rather than a reflection of current profitability. Once expectations stop rising, even good news can become bad news. While the impact of AMD's performance has yet to subside, Alphabet's earnings report has forced the market to re-examine another side of the AI narrative. After the market closed on February 6th, Google's parent company also delivered a stellar report, with both revenue and profit exceeding expectations, and cloud business growth reaching 48%. CEO Pichai attributed this to the comprehensive boost brought by AI. However, what truly shook the market was a set of data revealed by the CFO in the conference call: the company plans to invest $175 billion to $185 billion in capital expenditures in 2026. This scale far exceeds market expectations, almost double that of last year, equivalent to burning through approximately $500 million per day. Upon the announcement, Alphabet's after-hours stock price quickly plummeted, and the market began to rethink the true cost of AI. In fact, this is not a problem unique to Google. Meta plans to invest over $100 billion, and Microsoft and Amazon are also continuously increasing their investments. The four tech giants' combined annual investment may exceed $500 billion. This AI arms race is evolving into a competition that is "inevitable": whoever stops investing first may fall behind in the future competition. But the problem is that no one knows when this money-burning race will end, nor can anyone be sure when these investments will translate into stable profits. When the market realizes that AI may not be a short-term money-printing machine, but a long-term money-devouring beast, the capital expenditure under high valuations becomes the biggest source of risk. At the same time, the sharp fluctuations in the commodity and crypto markets have further amplified the chain reaction of global liquidity tightening. Silver experienced a near-frenzied rise in January, with a monthly increase of up to 68%, and social media was filled with narratives such as "explosive industrial demand" and "solar energy and AI will drive long-term shortages." However, this rise was also built on fragile leverage and sentiment. On January 30, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange suddenly raised the margin ratio for gold and silver, market makers began to shrink their risk exposure, and coupled with changes in US political and monetary policy expectations, the market experienced a sharp sell-off in a short period of time. Silver plummeted from $121 to $78, marking a record single-day drop in decades, followed by further sharp declines in the following days. Simultaneously, the cryptocurrency market continued to weaken. When liquidity is tight, institutions prioritize selling the most liquid assets, and cryptocurrencies, being traded 24/7 and possessing the highest liquidity, often become the first choice for replenishing margin and reducing risk exposure. As Japanese government bond yields surged, triggering the unwinding of arbitrage trades, US Treasuries, stocks, precious metals, and crypto assets all fell in tandem, creating a classic "liquidity black hole." Such market movements are rarely caused by a single event, but rather by multiple risks triggering simultaneously, leading to systemic deleveraging.
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