Chainfeeds Summary:
When financial reports become the electrocardiogram of Bitcoin's price, Strategy is not just a company, but an experiment about whether faith can overcome gravity.
Article source:
https://www.techflowpost.com/zh-CN/article/30274
Article Author:
TechFlow TechFlow
Opinion:
TechFlow TechFlow: After reviewing Strategy's Q4 financial report, I discovered a fundamental reading obstacle: regardless of which standard you use, its numbers can be misleading. First, look at the company's self-invented metric, BTC Yield, which measures the increase in the number of Bitcoins corresponding to each MSTR. For the full year of 2025, this figure was 22.8%, which looks impressive, but it only counts quantity, not price. The company can raise funds by issuing shares when Bitcoin is at $100,000 and buy more at $80,000, and the BTC Yield will still be positive, but the actual purchasing power of shareholders is shrinking. The $8.9 billion "BTC dollar gain" mentioned in the report suffers from the same problem: this figure is calculated using a price of approximately $89,000 at the end of the year, while Bitcoin had already fallen below $65,000 on the day the report was released. The price snapshot on December 31st quickly became distorted due to the market's dramatic fluctuations. Looking at US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), the situation is completely reversed: after accounting at fair value, Q4 saw a loss of $12.4 billion, and the full-year loss of $4.2 billion, which seems alarming. However, these losses also do not represent true cash flow. 2025 marks the first time Strategy has revalued Bitcoin at market price. At the end of each quarter, any price fluctuation will result in huge gains or losses on the books, even if the company hasn't sold a single coin. Understanding this numerical illusion makes the execution in 2025 much clearer. Strategy actually purchased approximately 225,000 Bitcoins throughout the year, holding about 3.4% of the global circulating supply, launched five preferred stock products, and had a record high of $2.3 billion in cash on hand. As a capital operation, this was indeed a textbook year. But all the achievements point to the same result: the company is more dependent on Bitcoin price movements than it was a year ago. In 2025, Strategy raised $25.3 billion, becoming the largest equity issuer in the US for the second consecutive year, while its quarterly software revenue was only about $120 million. The funding round was nearly 200 times its revenue, with almost all the funds used to buy cryptocurrency. The fundraising methods also changed: in addition to issuing stock, it also issued various types of preferred stock, essentially repackaging non-interest-bearing Bitcoin into financial products with yields of 8% to 11.25%, selling them to institutional investors seeking stable returns. The cost was also direct—by the end of the year, these preferred stocks and debt interest incurred approximately $888 million in fixed expenses annually, while the company's annual software revenue was only $477 million, less than half of which was covered. In Q4, the company established $2.25 billion in cash reserves, claiming it was enough to cover two and a half years, but this money itself was obtained through a low-price stock issuance, which at one point diluted the amount of Bitcoin per share. As of February 5th, the day the financial report was released, Bitcoin had fallen to approximately $64,000, while Strategy's average cost basis was $76,052. The total cost of the 713,502 Bitcoins was $54.26 billion, with a market capitalization of approximately $45.7 billion. This marked the first time the portfolio had experienced an overall unrealized loss since the company began buying Bitcoin in 2020. Four months prior, Bitcoin was near a high of $126,000, with unrealized profits exceeding $30 billion. Unrealized losses themselves do not necessarily indicate a crisis. The company lacks a forced liquidation mechanism, and with $2.25 billion in cash on hand and annual fixed expenses of $888 million, it could sustain itself for two and a half to three years without additional funding. However, surviving without funding is precisely the most difficult situation for Strategy to bear, as the core of this operation relies on continuous funding to buy more Bitcoin. If this stops, the BTC yield will drop to zero, and the company will degenerate into a passive Bitcoin fund with no management fees but a heavy dividend burden. Passive funds don't require premium trading; investors can directly buy spot ETFs, which offer greater transparency and lower fees. The real hard timeline is Q3 2027, when approximately $8.2 billion in convertible bonds will face a put option window. If Bitcoin is still low at that time, the company may need to sell tokens or refinance in the worst-case market conditions. Strategy won't die in the short term, but this structure will ultimately face the question: when prices stop rising, can the capital flywheel continue to spin?
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