ChainCatcher reports that CoinShares published an article stating that the possibility of practical quantum computers emerging in the future is not zero, sparking heated debate about the potential security implications for Bitcoin. The article argues that Bitcoin's quantum vulnerability is not an imminent crisis, but a foreseeable engineering problem with ample time to address.
From a technical perspective, the so-called quantum risk mainly stems from the possibility that the Shor algorithm could crack ECDSA or Schnorr signatures, thereby exposing the private key; the Grover algorithm, on the other hand, could theoretically weaken the security strength of SHA-256. The potential impact primarily affects approximately 1.7 million BTC held in early P2PK addresses, representing about 8% of the total supply; therefore, the likelihood of triggering a systemic market shock in the short term is limited. The commonly circulated claim that "approximately 25% of the supply is at risk" is considered a significant exaggeration, and a considerable portion of this risk can be mitigated through address migration and other methods.
While long-term attacks may be theoretically feasible within the next decade, short-term attacks, such as cracking the private key in mempool within 10 minutes, remain largely impractical for the foreseeable future, even decades later. The potential amount of private key leaks that could flood the market is roughly only around 10,000 BTC, and even if this occurs, the impact on the price system would be limited.
Coin holders can proactively migrate to a more secure address structure. The remaining potential targets are scattered across approximately 34,000 addresses, averaging about 50 BTC each. Even under the extremely optimistic assumption of a breakthrough in quantum technology, a full-scale attack could take decades.
