Aptos (APT) is facing short-term downside risk as the Token Lockup unlock on February 10th could increase the circulating supply and trigger selling pressure amidst a continuing weakening price trend.
APT has fallen sharply over the past 30 days and remains far from its November peak, leaving the market focused on the question: will supply inflation from unlocking outweigh positive on-chain signals such as increased TVL and outflows from exchanges?
- APT has fallen 39% in 30 days and 67% from its November peak of $3.37, reflecting a bearish price structure.
- Unlocking approximately $12.73 million worth of APT on February 10th could increase selling pressure due to the new supply entering circulation.
- Despite weak prices, increased TVL, and APT withdrawals from the exchange indicating selective accumulation, the daily net flow still shows inflows.
The risk of supply-side inflation for APT increased ahead of the unlocking date.
The APT Token Lockup unlocking event on February 10th is expected to put approximately $12.73 million worth of APT into circulation, increasing the supply and potentially creating short-term selling pressure.
According to data from defillama , Aptos is scheduled to Token Lockup on February 10th. In crypto, " Token inflation" typically refers to an increase in the circulating supply due to the issuance/unlocking of new Token Lockup , intended to reward network participants, support development, and incentivize the ecosystem.
The upcoming unlocking phase represents 1.13% of the total supply and 1.48% of Aptos's circulating supply, so it could have a significant impact on the market. Allocations are reserved for core contributors, the community, and investors.
Historically, in the altcoin market, Token Lockup unlocking has often been accompanied by short-term selling pressure as recipients realize profits or reduce risk by Token Sale . When the community and investors account for more than 50% of the unlocked supply (approximately $6.58 million at the valuation at the time of mention), the downside risk can be higher.
In the context of a weak altcoin market (market index at 24 in the original text), increased supply could accelerate the price decline if demand doesn't keep up.
APT is testing a key support zone around $1.00.
On the weekly chart, APT has fallen below the key demand zone and is hovering near $1.00; if it breaks below this zone, the risk of forming a new all-time Dip will increase.
Technical data from the Binance weekly chart in the original content shows that APT has broken below the “upper demand zone,” which was previously XEM a key support area. At the time of writing, the price was fluctuating near the $1.00 mark.
If it fails to hold this support zone, APT could fall to a new record low. This scenario would place APT among the few assets to hit a new all-time Dip since the market entered a downturn.
An oversold RSI increases the probability of a technical rebound, but this cannot yet be confirmed.
When the RSI enters the oversold zone, it is usually associated with "exhaustion of selling pressure," increasing the probability of a recovery, but not guaranteeing an immediate reversal.
According to the original text, the RSI has entered an area typically associated with accumulation, where the probability of a price reversal tends to be higher. When the RSI is in an oversold state, the market usually sees selling pressure gradually weaken and buyer interest increases at discounted prices.
However, an oversold RSI is not a "surefire" signal for a rebound. Prices could still fall further, especially if there is an event that increases the circulating supply, such as unlocking Token Lockup. It is more reasonable to consider this as a favorable condition for a corrective pullback if buying pressure emerges.
The MACD suggests momentum may improve, but the timing remains uncertain.
The MACD is suggesting that the downward momentum may slow down, opening up the possibility of a recovery, although there is no clear confirmation signal on when this will happen.
The original text notes that the MACD is showing signs of "improving momentum." In actual trading, this is often interpreted as the downtrend potentially losing strength or the market approaching a more balanced state between buyers and sellers.
However, with the supply factor still hanging in the balance, momentum signals need to be monitored along with price reactions around the support zone. If the price fails to defend the key area, an improved MACD may only reflect a short-term pullback within a downtrend.
The increase in TVL indicates that Capital remains in the Aptos system despite the weakening price.
Despite the drop in APT prices, the TVL of the Aptos system continues to increase, implying that Capital is being locked within the ecosystem instead of leaving.
The original text indicates that on-chain liquidation conditions still show a certain degree of resilience: Total Value Locked (TVL), a measure of the amount of Capital committed in the Aptos system, continues to rise even when prices are weak.
The defillama data cited in the article shows that since February 6th, TVL has increased by $14.04 million. The common interpretation is that investors may be locking up assets in the protocols within the system, which generally leans towards a longer-term perspective rather than short-term trading.
Exchange cash flow shows weekly accumulation, but daily selling pressure remains.
Netflow data shows that APT tends to withdraw from the exchange weekly (accumulation), but daily netflow still records net inflow (selling pressure).
In the spot market, the original content mentions exchange netflows showing signs of stable accumulation. Weekly data from Coinglass records outflows from the exchange starting in early January, and in the week mentioned alone, approximately $2.03 million worth of APT was withdrawn.
However, the short-term perspective is different: daily netflow data shows approximately $536,000 in net inflows into the exchange, reflecting ongoing selling activity. Combining the two timeframes, the overall picture is one of selective accumulation, but short-term selling pressure has not disappeared.
Conclusion: APT stands between unlocking pressure and selective signal accumulation.
Unlocking $12.73 million in APT could increase downside risk, while rising TVL and outflows suggest long-term buying pressure, creating a tug-of-war in the short term.
With APT having fallen 39% in 30 days and 67% from its November peak of $3.37, the market is sensitive to supply shocks. Nevertheless, indicators such as the oversold RSI, improving MACD, along with rising TVL and weekly outflows, could support the possibility of a technical rebound.
The key is the price reaction around the $1.00 mark and post-unlock behavior: if the new supply is well absorbed, on-chain signals could become a "support." Conversely, if the inflow to the exchange increases sharply, selling pressure could outweigh the on-chain improvements.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does unlocking APT Token Lockup on February 10th mean for the price?
The unlocking process brings new supply into circulation (approximately $12.73 million in original terms), typically increasing volatility risk and short-term selling pressure if the recipient sells.
Why does an oversold RSI not necessarily mean the price will surge immediately?
An oversold RSI typically reflects weakening selling pressure, but prices can still fall further if there are unfavorable supply/demand factors, such as increased supply due to Token Lockup unlocking or negative altcoin sentiment.
Is an increase in TVL a sure sign of an upward trend for APT?
No. The increase in TVL shows that Capital is locked in the Aptos system, which may support long-term confidence, but the Token price also depends on the circulating supply, inflows/outflows from the exchange, and overall market conditions.
What do weekly withdrawals and daily deposits indicate?
Weekly outflows typically suggest accumulation or longer-term holding, while daily inflows reflect short-term selling pressure. When these two opposing signals coexist, the market is usually in a stalemate.
