This provides the air force with a 100% accurate warning signal for the US stock market: a red flag is flashing. The SPX ÷ (30-year/2-year US Treasury yield) ratio: Peaked in 2000 → Dot-com bubble burst Peaked in 2007 → Subprime crisis Peaked in 2018 → Christmas crash Peaked in 2020 → Pandemic crash Each time, a systemic shock occurred within 1-4 months. Without exception. Current status: ✅ The ratio has turned downwards from a high level ✅ RSI has fallen below the strong zone ✅ SPX is still hitting new highs. The bond market is no longer supporting the stock market. Are you still fully invested?

Adding a technical detail: this ratio is essentially the reciprocal of the stock market risk premium. When the 30Y/2Y yield spread narrows (the curve flattens), the denominator decreases, and the ratio spikes, indicating that the market is overdrawing on the future. Historically, every time the denominator falls from a high level, it has been accompanied by a liquidity crisis. I suggest everyone take a look at the current TED spread and VIX term structure.