Bitcoin warns of $50,000 despite short-term rebound; macro variables remain in focus.
Although Bitcoin (BTC) began the second week of February with a rebound from a 15-month low, the market outlook remains cautious. Experts warn that this rally is merely a temporary "rebound," and that it could fall below $50,000 (approximately 73.06 million won) in the medium to long term.
Bitcoin has maintained its price above $70,000 (approximately 122.29 million won) since the weekend, but market sentiment remains far from optimistic. According to trading platform TradingView, price volatility has decreased significantly recently, raising expectations of a sideways movement or a resumption of decline rather than a short-term uptrend.
A rebound to liquidate short positions raises the possibility of a mid- to long-term decline.
Trader "CrypNuevo" analyzed through the social platform X (formerly Twitter) that this rise could be an "artificial rebound" intended to induce short-term short liquidation. According to him, positions are concentrated between $72,000 and $77,000 (approximately 150 million to 170 million won), so the price could first be pushed up to force the liquidation of short positions before falling again.
He added, "After this movement, there's a possibility of a retest of the low within 5-8 weeks based on the weekly candlestick pattern." Some analysts are openly suggesting that Bitcoin could correct to the $50,000 level in the long term. Some market participants are even suggesting, "This isn't the bottom. Considering past corrections of 80%, a price drop below $40,000 (approximately 58.44 million won) is possible."
CPI release expected… Interest rate uncertainty due to Trump's Fed appointments
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is scheduled to be released this week, and this could have a decisive impact on future interest rate forecasts. In particular, with President Trump's recent nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, expected to adopt a "tightening stance," the market has already shed hopes for a March rate cut.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group's FedWatch Tool, market participants see an 82% chance that interest rates will remain at current levels at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Analyst firm Mosaic analyzed that "high core inflation is making it difficult for the Fed to ease, leading to sharp declines in growth and AI stocks."
Slowing dollar strength raises the possibility of a Bitcoin rally in 2021.
The movement of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has recently stalled from its high, is also attracting attention. Based on the formula that "a weak dollar means a strong Bitcoin," expectations are rising that a similar asset cycle, as seen in 2021, could repeat itself.
Henrik Zeberg, chief economist at Swissblock, emphasized that Bitcoin could begin a new bull market, similar to what happened in 2021, when it surged 130% in the first 12 weeks of a strong dollar before peaking. He predicted that Bitcoin could rise to as high as $146,000 (approximately 213.39 million won) in this cycle as well.
Japan's fiscal policy shift and weak yen are creating headwinds for US markets and cryptocurrencies.
The Japanese general election results are also having an impact on macroeconomic variables. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's re-elected "money easing" policy has pushed the Nikkei index to a record high, while the yen's weakness against the dollar is showing signs of deepening.
XWIN Research analyzed that "the weakening yen is slowing the inflow of funds into US ETFs, and this will be fully reflected in crypto." They pointed out that since Bitcoin exhibits a high correlation with US stocks in risk-averse markets, changes in Japanese fund flows could be a factor in short-term downward pressure.
Signs of massive Bitcoin miner selloffs… It's too early to call a bottom.
Miners' movements are also being closely monitored. According to crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, miner deposits to exchanges have reached their highest levels this year in recent days, with 24,000 BTC transferred to exchanges on February 5th alone.
CryptoQuant warned that while this movement could be a natural "redistribution phase," it could lead to increased selling pressure in the short term. The "Hash Ribbon" indicator, which measures miner stress, also invalidated buy signals.
Outlook: Long-term trend remains valid, but short-term corrections are warranted.
Bitcoin hasn't completely escaped its long-term bullish trend yet, but in the short term, we need to prepare for price corrections and increased volatility. This week, with its densely packed macroeconomic indicators and policy news, is likely to be a crucial turning point for the Bitcoin market. The CPI release, the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance, and Japan's yen policy are expected to intersect, potentially triggering unexpected fluctuations.
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This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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