🔥 온체인으로 보는 BTC 의 가장 중요한 지점은?

선결론 : 86.6K

BTC 가 다시 상승할 동력을 얻을 수 있을까요? 그것을 결판내는 지점은 86.6K 를 수복하느냐, 마느냐로 갈릴 것으로 보입니다.

BTC 의 마이너 물량이 가장 많이 출금되어 시장으로 흘러간 지점이 바로 저 지점입니다.

해당 출금은 25년 1월에 이루어지고 비트코인은 그 후로 25% 정도 더 상승하고, 현재는 그 지점보다 아래에 있습니다.

만약 아직 마이너들의 물량이 남아있다면 해당 부근에 도달할때쯤, 계속해서 마이너들의 물량이 나올 가능성이 있습니다.

공교롭게도 CME 갭이 있는 부근이라 딱 채우고 빠질 가능성이 높은 부근이죠.

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🔥 What's the most important point for BTC, viewed on-chain?

Preliminary conclusion: 86.6K

Will BTC regain momentum? The decisive point will likely be whether it recovers 86.6K or not.

This point marks the point where the largest amount of BTC miners withdrew and flowed into the market.

This withdrawal occurred in January 2025, and Bitcoin has since risen by about 25%, currently sitting below that point.

If miners still have remaining supply, they will likely continue to pour in when the price reaches that level.

Coincidentally, this is the area where the CME gap is located, making it highly likely that the price will fill and then fall.

Bitcoin's price briefly touched $60,000 last week. Under a diminishing returns model, this is no mere noise. The market is touching the weakest link in the entire four-year cycle and logarithmic growth framework.

With the gains at the top of the Bitcoin cycle already significantly compressed, a further historically deep correction would completely negate the allure of its classic cycles.

This is not a prediction; it's a mathematical law.

Cycle Top Gains are Compressing

Historical Bitcoin Cycle Tops:

· 2013: ~$1,242

· 2017: ~$19,700

· 2021: ~...

$55,000 will be the lifeline for Bitcoin.

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