크립토퀀트 대표 주기영님의 BTC 관점

지금 비트코인은 ‘펌핑이 안 되는 구조’

1. 핵심 결론
- 현재 BTC 시장은 자금이 들어와도 가격이 잘 안 오르는 상태
- 이유는 매도 압력이 유입 자금을 상회하고 있기 때문

2. 숫자로 보는 변화
1) 2024년
- 자금 유입 $100억
- BTC 시가총액 +$260억
→ 돈이 들어오면 레버리지 효과 발생

2) 2025년
- 자금 유입 $3,080억
- BTC 시가총액 –$980억
→ 유입된 자금보다 매도 물량이 더 많았음

3. 온체인 지표 해석
- 초록 구간: 매도 압력 낮음 → 가격 반응 좋음
- 빨간 구간: 매도 압력 높음 → 돈 들어와도 가격 정체

* 현재는 빨간 구간
→ 펌핑이 막히는 구조

MSTR식 매수 전략이나 기관·재무 기반 BTC 매수(DATs)는 지금 국면에서는 가격 상승 효과를 제한적으로 주고있음. 고로, 매수보다 중요한 건 일단 매도 압력 소진 여부!

장기 보유자·채굴자 매도 둔화되면서 매도 압력 지표 빨간색 → 초록색 전환이 필요. 그 이후자금 유입 = 가격 상승 구조 복귀 가능.

위의 내용이 주기영 대표의 관점입니다. 100% 정답은 아니니까 그냥 온체인 데이터로 이렇게 보는 뷰도 있구나 정도로만 참고하시면 됩니다. (이 분은 온체인 데이터 플랫폼 대표라 이거 분석하는걸로 먹고사는 사람)

트윗 원문

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CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Joo's Perspective on BTC

Bitcoin's Current Structure: "Pumping is Not Possible"

1. Key Conclusion
- The current BTC market is experiencing a price slowdown despite capital inflows.
- This is because selling pressure exceeds inflows.

2. Changes in Numbers
1) 2024
- $10 billion inflows
- BTC market capitalization +$26 billion
→ Leverage effect occurs when capital inflows.

2) 2025
- $308 billion inflows
- BTC market capitalization -$98 billion
→ Selling volume exceeds inflows.

3. Interpretation of On-Chain Indicators
- Green zone: Low selling pressure → Good price response
- Red zone: High selling pressure → Price stagnation despite capital inflows.

* Currently in the red zone
→ Pumping is blocked.

MSTR-style buying strategies or institutional/financial BTC buying (DATs) are currently not likely to lead to price increases. The effect is limited. Therefore, more important than buying is whether selling pressure has been exhausted!

As selling by long-term holders and miners slows, the selling pressure indicator needs to transition from red to green. After that, capital inflow = a return to a rising price structure is possible.

The above is CEO Ki-young Joo's perspective. It's not 100% accurate, so please consider it as just another perspective based on on-chain data. (He's the CEO of an on-chain data platform, making a living analyzing this.)

Original tweet

Bitcoin's price briefly touched $60,000 last week. Under a diminishing returns model, this is no mere noise. The market is touching the weakest link in the entire four-year cycle and logarithmic growth framework.

With the gains at the top of the Bitcoin cycle already significantly compressed, a further historically deep correction would completely negate the allure of its classic cycles.

This is not a prediction; it's a mathematical law.

Cycle Top Gains are Compressing

Historical Bitcoin Cycle Tops:

· 2013: ~$1,242

· 2017: ~$19,700

· 2021: ~...

$55,000 will be the lifeline for Bitcoin.

The government has just issued Resolution No. 23/NQ-CP following the regular government meeting in January 2026, which emphasizes the requirement for proactive, flexible, and effective monetary policy management, with close coordination...

The Vietnamese government is pushing for the operation of a gold and cryptocurrency exchange by February 28, 2026.

The crypto market experienced a sharp drop this afternoon, with Ethereum falling below the $2,000 mark at 3 PM Taiwan time, according to Hyperliquid [...]
The article, titled "Machi Big Brother Suffers Huge Losses and Didn't Sleep All Night? Ethereum Falls Below 2000 Magnesium, Panic Arrives, Opens Long BlockTempo and Loses 120,000 Magnesium," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Machi Big Brother lost so much money he couldn't sleep all night? Ethereum fell below 2000, causing panic. He long positions in ETH and HYPE, then sold at a loss, losing all 120,000 in magnesium.