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The "Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?" message on Polymarket is essentially a benchmark interest rate prediction market. It's not just an absurd and purely theological joke. The game here lies in: 1. Liquidity Premium: Buying No. is essentially a time deposit maturing in 2027. If the yield is higher than that of risk-free investment options such as government bonds, arbitrage opportunities arise. Traders will continuously anchor its implied annualized yield to the yields of investment options such as US Treasury bonds. 2. Opportunity Cost Game: Buying Yes is short others' patience. When a bigger hot topic emerges on Polymarket, or when other markets show a trend (more bluntly, someone might be about to be liquidated and need to add to their position), some people who bought No will sell No and move their funds elsewhere to reduce opportunity costs. This change in supply and demand structure allows those who bought Yes to profit. Simply put, buying "No" means expecting to earn time value, while buying "Yes" means expecting to earn the opportunity cost of others.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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