CoinShares: Quantum computing is not yet a “crisis imminent” for Bitcoin.
In its latest report, the cryptocurrency asset management company CoinShares Assessing the risks of quantum computers for Bitcoin It's not an immediate threat , but rather A risk that can be controlled .
Although the Shor algorithm is theoretically capable of attacking signature mechanisms like ECDSA and Schnorr, CoinShares argues that The necessary technological capabilities do not yet exist. and At least another 10 years This scenario is the only one that could become a reality.
Bitcoin's security architecture and the exaggerated concerns surrounding it.
According to the analysis, the security of the Bitcoin network is based on elliptic curve signature and SHA-256 hash function .
Quantum computers, even as they develop rapidly, The 21 million BTC limit cannot be broken. good "Circumventing" the Proof-of-Work mechanism .
Especially with modern address types such as P2PKH and P2SH , The public key is only revealed when a transaction is spent , helping Significantly reduces the attack surface .
CoinShares argues that claims like “ 25% of the supply is at risk ” have exaggerated threats Temporary and fixable .
Actual numbers, timelines, and response plans.
The report states Approximately 1.6–1.7 million BTC (≈8% of the supply) located at these addresses old P2PK with the public key visible; mostly small remainder .
The amount of UTXO that can be generated significant selling pressure only about 10,200 BTC . Technically, to break the curve. secp256k1 in less than 1 year will need 10,000–100,000 times the current number of logic qubits ; short-term attacks (under 10 minutes, like mempool) are evaluated Impossible for decades .
CoinShares also mentioned a solution. Switch to quantum-resistance (QR) addressing. through soft/ Hard Fork This can increase confidence and proactive prevention, but it comes with drawbacks. Risks due to unverified cryptography . wasting development resources , and even debate about property rights For lost/dormant coins.
