Analysis on where the bottom could form 'Every cycle bottom in crypto occurs below this level, but price can go a lot deeper before that bottom forms'. The past week confirms that, with $BTC dropping significantly. Current low is down 30% from the first stab below 37 RSI. Again, the data since 2014: Drawdown from the first time RSI crossing 37: Max ≈55% Min ≈17% Current ≈31% One key observation: every following bottom has bottomed out less far below the level of the first RSI 37 crossing. Time before bottom forms: Max ≈200d Min =0d Current 84d Conclusions from that: Drawdown is in the reasonable range based on RSI, but can go deeper still. 55% down from the RSI 37 point would bring BTC to the low $40k region - though the lows have been less deep, so 50% would be an extreme. 40% below would be in line with the last two bottoms at 43.2% and 41.4% - which would bring a bottom around $52k. Time-wise, even a repeat of the 200-days max would mean a bottom in June, long before the 4y Cycle's October bottom predictions. As such - based on the above, it makes sense if price forms a bottom just before summer, around the $52k mark. Wouldn't go off of this alone, but there's decent confluence around that area for me to at least pay close attention to the low $50ks.

Lines up with Fibs .618 as well btw 👀

Weekly RSI 37 is a solid regime marker. The drawdown range is the uncomfortable part.