Prediction market volume hit $63.5B last year, up 4x YoY: CertiK

Trading volume in the prediction market reached approximately $63.5 billion last year, more than four times the $15.8 billion recorded in 2024, according to a recent report by global Web3 security firm CertiK. According to Decrypt, the report noted that liquidity last year was concentrated on major platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion. However, the surge in volume was largely driven by incentives and events rather than steady, organic demand, with so-called "wash trading" by traders seeking to secure incentives accounting for as much as 60% of the total volume. The report raises questions about the market's sustainability once these incentives are removed but added that despite the inflated liquidity metrics, price distortion and prediction accuracy remained at a reliable level.