On February 11, Investinglive analyst Justin Low stated that Revelio Labs, a private data provider in the US, projected a decrease of 13,300 in non-farm payrolls for January, the start of the new year, and significantly revised its December figure down to an increase of 34,400 (previously 71,100). This is not an official non-farm payrolls "estimate," but rather an indicative indicator reflecting overall trends. Revelio Labs' measurement standard is "a set of employment statistics derived from over 100 million professional profiles obtained from professional social networking sites (such as LinkedIn)." While its methodology may seem unconventional, it does provide a relatively good indication of overall trends in the labor market.
Therefore, even if today's non-farm payroll data is unlikely to show negative growth, the trend is already clear: the labor market is weakening. Under the current economic conditions, non-farm payroll data will continue to reflect this reality over time. In assessing any market reaction to tonight's report, this will remind us that a single data point cannot constitute a trend. (Jinshi)
