$BTC Elliott Wave count update - best scenario - invalidation $31k.

1. Best scenario: Wave ④ is final — The wick down to $60k marks the bottom of this correction. Wave ④ can be classified as an expanded flat correction either since 2025 (solid line) or since July 2025 (dotted line). In either case, the drop from $126k to $60k is a complete impulse. If this is true, the fifth wave is about to begin. 2. Bad scenario Wave ④ is not final — The wick to $60k only marks the start of a larger correction. However, this correction does not enter the territory of wave ① (i.e., it stays above $31k). In this scenario, the market is undergoing a true bear market, similar to 2018, and we would be roughly halfway through it. 3. Worst scenario Wave ⑤ is final — This represents the worst-case scenario. The final wave up to $126k could also be counted as an impulse. This scenario is only confirmed if the price eventually drops below $31k. All ingredients necessary for a sharp recovery are present. Scenario 1 is in my view the most likely to play out now the $74.4k anchor is broken.