The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest non-farm payroll data on February 11, 2026 (9:30 PM Taipei time), covering employment in January 2026. This report shows that the U.S. labor market has shown greater resilience than market expectations, alleviating previous concerns about an economic slowdown.
In terms of specific data, non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding the market consensus expectation of approximately 66,000 to 70,000. The unemployment rate remained around 4.3%, with limited change. Job growth mainly came from sectors such as healthcare, social assistance, and construction. Overall, this report shows that the job market is more resilient than the weak data of previous months, alleviating concerns about a hard landing for the US economy.
Markets are betting on a Fed rate cut in July.
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, after the release of the non-farm payroll report, although the market still believes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain the current interest rate level in March and April this year, the probability of restarting the pace of rate cuts in June, specifically a 25 basis point cut, has exceeded the probability of continuing to hold rates steady (41%), reaching 48.2%. In July, the market predicts that the Fed will have a 46.3% probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points, while the probability of continuing to maintain the current interest rate has dropped to 26.5%.
It is worth noting that the market consensus previously (especially before the release of the non-farm payroll data) favored June as the timing for the first rate cut. This change is mainly attributed to the fact that the strong employment data reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to immediately implement easing policies.
Bitcoin surges then falls back
In the cryptocurrency market, influenced by strong non-farm payroll data, risk sentiment stabilized in the short term, and Bitcoin (BTC) saw a brief rise, breaking through $67,000 to reach a high of $67,670. However, at the time of writing, Bitcoin has quickly fallen back, currently trading at $66,960. Ethereum showed a similar trend, currently trading at $1,950.
