Looking at the continuously falling market and the clamor in the crypto, I'm really a bit worried. Just yesterday I said in the group that 72 might be the limit, and as long as tonight's non-farm payrolls report isn't too outrageous, there shouldn't be any major problems. But then I looked around and the media is already speculating that tonight's non-farm payrolls report might be revised down by 1 million. The previous non-farm payrolls figure was 50,000, and the expected figure is 70,000. If the data released tonight is very poor, such as reaching 0% or negative growth, then... If tonight's job creation is less than 30,000 and the unemployment rate is higher than 4.5%, then the risk markets may experience a minor shock. More importantly, if the non-farm annual baseline is lowered by 1 million, it will completely ignite panic about recession expectations. Of course, even if the data looks bad, some people will still try to manage expectations. For example, Hassett recently said that the employment slump is due to soaring productivity (driven by AI) and tightening immigration policies (reduced labor supply). Predicting the crypto market is becoming increasingly difficult, with a widening divergence from US stocks and gold and silver prices, making predictions challenging using only a single factor. However, it's clear that BTC remains in a downward trend and hasn't bottomed out. Altcoin trading volume is also extremely weak; even some contracts with only a few million trades are making it onto the top gainers list, something unimaginable before. Americans certainly understand the true state of the US economy better than we do; ultimately, it's either stagflation or recession. The only question is how far the market's expectation management has progressed, and whether the current BTC movement reflects priced-in negative news or preemptive risk aversion. The current situation could even be a liquidity crisis preceding an economic crisis, and Trump's midterm election victory is far from guaranteed. The Democrats are still creating obstacles, which is why Trump is eager to visit China in April. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has remained silent, and whether the visit will actually take place remains uncertain. However, one detail is worth noting: last week, the BLS postponed the release of the non-farm payroll data, citing the previous government shutdown. This indicates that they are stepping up their data manipulation and behind-the-scenes trading. Since they care so much, the data probably won't be too bad, or at least it won't collapse. Tonight's drama hinges on the skill of BLS's scriptwriters. Hopefully, it will be a perfect scenario: the economy shows signs of weakness but hasn't collapsed, and the market, after being subjected to a million-dollar downward revision, breathes a sigh of relief and rebounds. If that happens, and if the market gives us another window of opportunity at 72, then I really should exit now. After all, the overall downward trend hasn't reversed.

It seems the pizza index has gone up; maybe they're about to attack Iran. The non-farm payrolls should be fine.