Author: TechFlow TechFlow
US Stocks: Why is nobody happy with a "perfect" jobs report?
Yesterday (February 11), the story's focus wasn't on a particular stock, but on a set of data.
The January non-farm payrolls report showed a net increase of 130,000 jobs, more than double the market expectation of 55,000. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. This should have been great news, but after a brief surge, US stocks collectively retreated: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.13% to close at 50,121 points; the S&P 500 was almost unchanged at 6,941 points; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.16% to close at 23,066 points.
This counterintuitive reaction reveals the core contradiction in the market: the better the economy, the further away interest rate cuts are, and the harder it is for valuations to hold up .
After the non-farm payroll data was released, the market immediately postponed its expectations for interest rate cuts this year.
A healthy labor market means the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to loosen interest rates. The high valuations of tech stocks are based on expectations of further rate cuts. Following the news, Treasury yields jumped, and software stocks plummeted again: Salesforce fell over 4%, IBM plunged 6.44% in a single day, and Zillow Group dropped 17%.
However, a closer look at the data reveals that this report is not so "perfect." Employment is concentrated in healthcare and social services, and employment data for the past two years has been revised downwards for the most part in history. The actual net increase in employment for the whole of 2025 has been revised from 580,000 to 180,000, the lowest since 2003. This is less a reflection of a strong economy and more a sign that the statistical data is being "delayed."
There's a quiet internal battle going on in the market, and yesterday a financial report gave us a glimpse into it.
Vertiv (VRT) shares surged 25% in a single day , recovering all of its losses for the year and adding more than $10 billion to its market capitalization.
The reason is simple: this company, which provides cooling and power systems for data centers, saw its orders increase by 252% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Not 25%, not 52%, but 252%. The company's order backlog has reached $15 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, and its full-year 2026 earnings guidance projects earnings per share of $5.97 to $6.07, significantly exceeding Wall Street's previous expectation of $5.51. The CEO stated: "Our order backlog provides clear visibility for growth in 2026."
On the same day, Cloudflare surged 11% due to strong Q4 results and better-than-expected 2026 revenue guidance.
On the other hand, Mattel fell 27%, Zillow fell 17%, and Unity Software fell 32%, with software stocks once again being crushed by the AI narrative.
This is the current landscape of the market: those building AI infrastructure are making big money, while the old tenants living in these AI buildings are being evicted. Vertiv sells shovels, Cloudflare makes pipes—they've won; while enterprise software companies facing replacement by AI automation are being continuously repriced.
Today's focus : Tomorrow (late night of February 13th/early morning of February 14th, Beijing time), the US will release its January CPI inflation data. This is the last bombshell of the week and a key factor in determining whether expectations for an interest rate cut will return. The market currently predicts that the annual CPI rate will remain around 3%. If it exceeds expectations, tech stocks will likely suffer another blow.
Gold and silver: The floor level of 4,500 yuan is starting to solidify.
Yesterday (February 11), spot gold closed in the range of $5,063 to $5,088 per ounce, up more than 1% on the day; silver rebounded even more sharply, rising as much as 5% to close around $84 to $85 per ounce. This morning, gold stabilized around $5,063.
The market is gradually digesting the "epic crash" that occurred last weekend, with gold experiencing its biggest single-day drop in decades and silver its largest single-day drop in history.
Why did it rebound so quickly? Support came from several directions simultaneously:
First, the strong non-farm payroll report triggered a transmission chain—stronger employment indicates greater economic resilience, which means inflation will not decline rapidly, and if inflation does not decline, the logic for gold will not dissipate. Second, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 15th consecutive month, and central bank buying is a long-term supporting force. Third, although there has been progress in the US-Iran negotiations, the geopolitical powder keg has not been extinguished, and the demand for safe-haven assets has not completely retreated.
Silver's situation is much more delicate. London gold reserves continued to shrink at the end of January, global solar panel production capacity continued to expand, and industrial demand for silver is structurally improving; however, ETF funds continue to flow out, and short-term speculators have been wiped out in the recent sharp rises and falls. UBS maintains its year-end forecast of around $85 for silver, Goldman Sachs has a year-end target of $5,400 for gold, and JPMorgan Chase is the most aggressive, predicting $6,300 by year-end.
In short: Gold has held its ground above $5,000; silver is fluctuating between $80 and $85, awaiting CPI data for direction.
Crypto Markets: Bitcoin Hangs at $67,000, Labeled as "Extreme Fear"
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,500 to $67,700, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $26.3 billion, a decline from the brief rebound before the release of the non-farm payroll report.
Yesterday's events unfolded as follows: After the release of the non-farm payroll data, market sentiment briefly rallied, with Bitcoin briefly touching around $69,000. However, as expectations for interest rate cuts diminished and Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin quickly abandoned its gains, giving back all its gains and falling below the $68,000 mark again in the final minutes of trading.
What's more worrying than prices is the structure of market sentiment. The crypto fear-greed index is currently in single digits, in the extreme fear range.
Robinhood's after-hours earnings report yesterday showed a significant decrease in revenue from its crypto business, confirming the reality of retail investors leaving the market. CoinShares data also shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen outflows exceeding $1 billion this year, indicating that institutional arbitrage and allocation positions are gradually retreating following expectations of tighter interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Galaxy founder Mike Novogratz told CNBC that Bitcoin is currently in a "recession of the speculative era," with very little interest from retail investors.
From its all-time high of $126,000, Bitcoin has now fallen by nearly half. The last time it experienced a drop of this magnitude from its high was in early 2022. It took 28 months to recover then.
Several variables worth continued attention : If the CPI data is as expected or exceeds expectations, it will further suppress expectations of interest rate cuts, which is negative for the crypto market; conversely, if the CPI is unexpectedly lower than expected, expectations of interest rate cuts will return, which may bring a short-term rebound window.
In addition, the Senate hearing for the new Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, Warsh, has not yet been officially scheduled. The tension between his past friendly remarks on Bitcoin and his possible hawkish interest rate stance will be one of the important narrative threads in the market in the second half of the year.
In summary, the non-farm payrolls report, which should have been twice as good as expected, instead became a new factor weighing down tech stocks. This misalignment is a unique and strange phenomenon in the US stock market in 2026.
Hardware infrastructure is booming in the era of stock splits, software services are retreating under the scrutiny of AI, gold has regained support after panic, and Bitcoin's identity as "digital gold" is now in big question.
Tonight, the CPI die hasn't landed yet.
