Chainfeeds Summary:
For Robinhood, the real test is not the records in a bull market, but the floors in a bear market.
Article source:
https://www.techflowpost.com/zh-CN/article/30338
Article Author:
TechFlow TechFlow
Opinion:
TechFlow TechFlow: Robinhood is experiencing a peculiar split. After the US stock market closed on February 10th, the retail trading platform delivered a near-perfect report card: annual revenue of $4.5 billion, a 52% year-over-year increase, setting a new record; earnings per share of $2.05; annual net deposits of $68 billion; and 4.2 million Gold subscribers, all record highs. CEO Vlad Tenev announced in a conference call: "We are building a financial super app." However, the market reaction was completely opposite—the stock price fell 7% in after-hours trading, and combined with previous declines, it has halved from its October high. A company that just achieved its best performance ever has seen its market value evaporate by half in four months. The core problem is simple: crypto trading revenue plummeted 38% year-over-year. Q4 crypto revenue was only $221 million, trading volume halved year-over-year, and retail investors stopped trading. With Bitcoin falling, FOMO disappearing, and risk appetite shrinking sharply, closing the app became the most rational choice for retail investors. Robinhood's core business is improving, but the market is only focusing on the deteriorating part. Analyzing its revenue structure clearly reveals Robinhood's transformation. Q4 trading commission revenue reached $776 million, a 15% year-over-year increase, with options trading surging 41%, stock trading growing 54%, and other asset trading revenue tripling. Net interest income increased by 39%, and Gold subscription revenue grew by 56%. However, crypto trading revenue saw a significant decline, its share dropping from 35% a year ago to 17%. This trend is not unexpected but rather a result of the company's strategic transformation. Over the past year, Robinhood has aggressively expanded its product line: prediction markets, futures, short, Gold Card, banking services, retirement accounts, international expansion, and building a multi-asset brokerage platform. Management has explicitly stated that the company now has 11 business lines with annualized revenue exceeding $100 million. Yet, Wall Street still prices Robinhood as a "Bitcoin shadow stock." It doesn't bear the price risk of Bitcoin but is highly dependent on retail trading activity. When the market entered a deleveraging and risk contraction phase, crypto business plummeted, and its stock price fell in close tandem with Bitcoin's. Comparing the financial reports of Robinhood and Strategy reveals two typical patterns of decline in the crypto bear market. Strategy's approach is a chronic illness: Bitcoin stagnates, the flywheel stops spinning, but it survives on cash flow and unwavering faith. Robinhood's approach is an acute reaction: crypto trading volume plummeted, monthly active users dropped by 1.9 million, but other businesses continued to grow. Superficially different, they are essentially the same: neither can control the most critical variable in their fate. Strategy cannot control Bitcoin's price, and Robinhood cannot control retail investor sentiment, which is ultimately determined by Bitcoin's price. The entire industry is chasing Alpha, but in reality, only Beta exists, and Beta is Bitcoin itself. Record-breaking performance is a badge of honor in a bull market, but a burden in a bear market. For Robinhood, the real test is not growth in a bull market, but its bottom line in a bear market. It is undertaking a high-stakes gamble on decryption, attempting to transform into a financial infrastructure platform before the casino business cools down, but time and the market may not give it enough patience on this path.
Content source 
