$71 million inflow... Ethereum ETFs and on-chain indicators: Will a rebound to $2,400 signal a bottom?

Ethereum spot ETFs are showing signs of reviving institutional demand, with $71 million (approximately KRW 102.1 billion) flowing into them. With on-chain indicators and derivatives markets gradually stabilizing, attention is focused on whether the Ethereum (ETH) price can rebound toward the $2,400 (approximately KRW 345.25 million) level. However, ETH has yet to significantly recover above $2,000 (approximately KRW 287.72 million). Amidst weakened investor sentiment following last week's plunge to $1,745 (approximately KRW 250.92 million), the simultaneous detection of "bottoming" signals in ETF fund flows and futures and derivatives indicators has emerged as a key variable.

US-listed ETH ETFs snap three consecutive days of outflows, returning to net inflows.

US-listed Ethereum ETFs snapped a three-day streak of net outflows, recording net inflows of $71 million (approximately KRW 102.1 billion) on Monday and Tuesday. This is a significant change, as institutional funds have begun to flow back in even amidst increasing Ethereum price volatility. Ethereum ETFs' total assets under management (AUM) currently remain stable at around $13 billion (approximately KRW 18.7018 trillion). Industry insiders believe that maintaining this level of volume provides sufficient "boardroom" for global hedge funds and large institutional investors to maintain or expand their positions. Indeed, the average daily trading volume of Ethereum ETFs exceeds $1.65 billion (approximately KRW 2.3778 trillion). This indicates ample liquidity, which mitigates the impact of large buy and sell orders on the market and encourages institutional participation. A frequently cited comparison is the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE US), the largest ETF in the US energy sector. XLE's average daily trading volume is approximately $1.5 billion (approximately KRW 2.1579 trillion), similar to that of the Ethereum ETF. XLE tracks traditional energy large-cap stocks, including ExxonMobil (XOM US), Chevron (CVX US), ConocoPhillips (COP US), The Williams Companies (WMB), and Kinder Morgan (KMI US), with a combined market capitalization of $2 trillion (approximately KRW 2,877.2 trillion). The fact that the Ethereum ETF has achieved trading volume comparable to these figures suggests that ETH's institutional integration as a digital asset has progressed significantly.

Futures premiums remain weak…Derivatives markets still holding on

The resumption of ETF inflows doesn't necessarily mean the Ethereum derivatives market has immediately turned bullish. Demand for "leveraged longs" (borrowed bets on a bull market) remains limited. According to Laevitas, an on-chain data analytics firm, the annualized premium (basis) for two-month ETH futures remained below the 5% "neutral" level as of Wednesday. A basis significantly exceeding 5% typically indicates that the futures price is overvalued relative to the spot price, signaling strong upward expectations and leveraged demand. Conversely, a prolonged period below 5% suggests that market participants are reluctant to borrow money to buy ETH. For the past three months, the ETH futures basis has consistently fluctuated below this neutral level. However, it's noteworthy that the basis has stabilized at around 3%, even as Ethereum prices have fallen to their lowest levels in the past nine months. This allows for the interpretation that this is closer to a relatively calm correction phase, rather than an episode of extreme panic or large-scale liquidation of long positions. The mere fact that the derivatives market isn't collapsing sharply is interpreted by some long-term investors as a sign of remaining stamina.

TVL declines to $54 billion; concerns over worsening profitability

The price slump has also dealt a direct blow to the Ethereum mainnet's core fundamental indicator, Total Value Locked (TVL). According to DefiLlama, a DeFi data platform, the Ethereum network's TVL has decreased from $71.2 billion (approximately 102.4135 trillion won) a month ago to a recent low of $54.2 billion (approximately 77.9777 trillion won). A decline in TVL means that capital locked in Ethereum-based smart contracts is decreasing. As capital is withdrawn, various activities occurring on the chain, such as trading, swaps, and lending, will shrink, resulting in lower network fees (gas fees). A decrease in fee income will lower Ethereum's staking reward rate and weaken the "fee burn mechanism" introduced in EIP-1559. This raises concerns about a potential vicious cycle: price decline → TVL decline → reduced fees and burn → worsening network profitability. This is the picture that investors who place the mid- to long-term value of Ethereum on 'chain usage' and 'fee burning' are most wary of.

On-chain DEX trading volume and DApp revenue are reviving.

Interestingly, despite these negative macro indicators, some signs of recovery are clearly visible in some Ethereum on-chain activity. According to DeFirama, the Ethereum network's decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume reached $20 billion (approximately KRW 28.772 trillion) over the past seven days. This figure more than doubles from $9.8 billion (approximately KRW 14.09 trillion) a month ago. This increase in overall trading volume is believed to be driven by increased demand for spot swaps and token rebalancing on major protocols such as Uniswap, Curve, and Balancer. The surge in DEX trading has directly led to increased protocol fee revenue. The cumulative seven-day revenue of Ethereum-based DApps has reached $26.6 million (approximately KRW 382.8 billion). This growth, driven by an increase in actual on-chain user activity, suggests a different pattern from a simple price sell-off. The gap with rival chain Solana (SOL) has also narrowed somewhat. During the same period, Solana's dapp revenue reached $31.1 million (approximately KRW 447.6 billion), still exceeding Ethereum's, but the gap is narrowing compared to previous years. Considering that Solana has demonstrated an advantage in dapp profitability since last year, fueled by the Memecoin craze and high-speed transactions, this could be interpreted as Ethereum laying the groundwork for a catch-up.

Short-Term Rebound Scenarios Indicated by ETFs, Derivatives, and On-Chain Indicators

Looking solely at recent Ethereum price trends, it's true that investor sentiment has been dampened by repeated failures to settle above $2,000 (approximately KRW 287.72 million). However, a closer look at specific indicators reveals signs of "qualitative improvement," including the resumption of ETF inflows, stabilization of the futures basis, and increased on-chain DEX trading and dApp sales. Of course, concerns about declining TVL and reduced fees and token burns remain a concern. If the recovery in on-chain activity fails to reach a certain level, questions about Ethereum's staking profitability and token economy could resurface. Conversely, if the current on-chain transaction growth continues or accelerates, this will likely lead to improved network profitability, supporting the ETH price recovery. Market analysts predict that ETH could challenge the $2,400 (approximately KRW 345.25 million) level again, depending on how quickly investor sentiment recovers in the coming weeks. However, since volatility can increase at any time depending on external factors such as macroeconomic variables, regulatory news, and trends in competitive chains, it is difficult to determine short-term price trajectories. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investment and trading always carries the risk of loss, and all judgment and responsibility lies solely with the investor.

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