CZ argues that the current cryptocurrency market cycle may no longer necessarily follow a four-year pattern, as the US has for the first time publicly supported the industry and pushed for legislation, potentially leading other countries to follow suit.
According to CZ, the context is that stablecoins and RWAs are growing rapidly, the long-term outlook for the industry remains stable, but short-term volatility is difficult to predict. He stated this during a Binance Square AMA Chia (summarized by @linwanwan823) on February 13th.
- The four-year cycle may no longer be decisive; the US legislature is a major variable.
- CEX and DEX will coexist; RWA Tokenize is a major trend.
- AI × Crypto is growing rapidly; CZ donates $18,000 to Giggle Academy.
Market cycles, stablecoins, and RWAs
CZ believes the cryptocurrency industry remains positive in the long term thanks to stablecoins and RWAs, but the short term is difficult to predict; this cycle may deviate from the 4-year pattern.
According to CZ, the novelty is that the US is for the first time clearly showing support for the cryptocurrency industry and is pushing for related legislation. He believes other countries may follow suit, making familiar assumptions about market cycles uncertain.
He emphasized that Tokenize RWAs is a major and certain trend: countries have an incentive to create liquidation for assets through Token. This reinforces the argument that the infrastructure and products related to stablecoins, RWAs, will continue to accelerate.
CEX vs DEX, AI × Crypto, and other highlights from the AMA
CZ predicts that CEX and DEX will coexist for the long term; AI × Crypto is the fastest-growing application area, but is still in its early stages.
He argues that new users still need a CEX to get started, while advanced users tend to move to a DEX. The market is large enough for thousands of CEXs and DEXs; it's not a zero-sum game. With AI × Crypto, in the next 2-5 years, cross-border, small-value, high-frequency payments between AI agents are likely to use cryptocurrency.
Regarding Aster's price, CZ said that one shouldn't focus too much on short-term fluctuations and expressed confidence in the team. He noted that the industry is being pulled between two extremes: maximum transparency and privacy protection, and it's unclear which will prevail. Regarding FUD, he suggested that the best approach is to remain silent; he also criticized excessive competition within the Chinese community and called for unity to expand international influence. Binance Square is building a Web3 version of YouTube, monetizing through fee refunds for traders and rewarding creators with Token . CZ XEM Africa as an opportunity not to be missed (low banking penetration, high smartphone usage), stating that he has visited over 12 African countries and will donate all of his approximately $18,000 livestreaming support to Giggle Academy.
