CPI Outlook: Economists say CPI data always exceeds expectations in January.

According to a Reuters survey on February 13th, the median forecast from economists surveyed indicates that the US January CPI month-on-month growth rate is likely to be 0.3%, similar to the growth rate in December. Economists' expectations range from 0.1% to 0.4%. The year-on-year CPI growth rate is expected to be 2.5%, a decrease from December's 2.7%, which economists believe is mainly due to the fact that last year's higher inflation rate is no longer included in the calculation. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a recalculated seasonal adjustment factor when releasing the January CPI report to reflect price changes in 2025. This may lead to a revision of the seasonally adjusted CPI index over the past five years. Economists believe that the updated calculation model by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics may not be able to resolve the January effect of CPI data: CPI data exceeds expectations every January. (Jinshi)