CPI Outlook: Tonight's US inflation report may bring more good news; a 2.5% level could open up room for interest rate cuts.

According to ME News, on February 13th (UTC+8), analysts believe that tonight's US inflation data may bring more positive news. Dow Jones' market forecast indicates that the US overall CPI will rise 2.5% year-on-year in January. If the data meets expectations, it means the CPI will return to the level of May 2025—when President Trump had just implemented the "Liberation Day" tariffs, which many economists worried would lead to a sharp rise in prices. The overall CPI in December was 2.7%, trending downwards since its peak of slightly above 3% in September, while the core CPI was 2.6%. Both indicators are expected to record a 0.3% month-on-month increase in January. It is worth noting that CPI data for the past three months has been lower than Wall Street's expectations, so a lower-than-expected January figure could strengthen the confidence of Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates without triggering a new round of inflation. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said that an inflation level of 2.5% would be consistent with pre-COVID-19 levels and close to the average level of 2017-2019. Lee pointed out, "Even though the data still reflects the effects of tariffs, this is a 'normal' level of inflation." He added that the current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%, well above pre-pandemic levels, and "the Fed has considerable room to cut rates." (Source: ME)