Reports about the possibility of Russia returning to using the US dollar for payments have shifted market sentiment, triggering a widespread sell- Dump and causing Bitcoin and many other risky assets to fall.
Amidst geopolitical instability, capital tends to flow away from risky assets, while gold remains seen as a safe-haven asset. The movements of the USD and the DXY index therefore become crucial variables, directly impacting yield expectations and risk appetite for crypto.
- News about USD payments could give the DXY a boost, putting pressure on Bitcoin and riskier assets.
- The inflow and outflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs and the Coinbase Premium Index suggest that sentiment hasn't completely reset yet.
- Despite consolidating around the $60,000 mark, BTC 's next move will heavily depend on shifts in macroeconomic sentiment.
Geopolitics is putting pressure on risky assets.
This week, the market witnessed a widespread decline as geopolitical factors weighed heavily on sentiment, causing Capital to continue rotating away from risky sectors.
This week alone, approximately $120 billion has "evaporated" from the market, dragging the TOTAL index back to near pre-election levels. At the same time, gold (XAU) reflected its safe-haven Vai , despite closing down 3.19% on February 12th. In the riskier asset group, Bitcoin fell 1.2% and the S&P 500 (SPX) dropped 1.57%, recording their sharpest sell-off in nearly a month, indicating a widespread "flush."
The USD report could be the catalyst for a sell-off.
Information from a widely circulated report has reignited debate about Russia potentially increasing its use of the USD in payments, making markets more sensitive to a scenario of a stronger USD.
The catalyst in question is a Bloomberg report suggesting that Russia may shift back to using the US dollar as part of broader economic cooperation. In terms of market mechanisms, the return of the USD to Vai as a payment instrument could strengthen demand for holding USD, causing investors to reassess macroeconomic risks and positions in highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.
A stronger DXY typically reduces the attractiveness of Bitcoin in the short term.
If the USD and DXY rise, the relative yields of fixed-income channels could become more attractive, making Bitcoin less competitive in terms of risk/reward in the short term.
From a macroeconomic technical perspective, the "stronger USD" narrative could provide further impetus to the DXY index after more than a year of downward pressure, bringing it back to levels similar to 2022. Bitcoin's price reaction to the news suggests the market doesn't XEM this as a positive signal : a strong USD typically makes bonds a more attractive high-yield option, thereby weakening the "risk-reward" appeal of BTC.
However, recent cycles have also shown that a weakening USD doesn't always lead to a sustained rise in Bitcoin. This shifts the focus to "sentiment": if a shift in sentiment associated with a strong USD helps reduce macroeconomic uncertainty, then in some scenarios, it could become a positive catalyst for risk assets.
Psychology is becoming more important than Bitcoin's technical structure.
Despite structural support around $60,000, the market is still not convinced that Bitcoin has bottomed Dip because sentiment indicators and institutional money flows are not yet truly stable.
One factor causing hesitation is Bitcoin ETF Capital . According to Bitcoin ETF data, the market recorded an additional $276 million in net outflows after three consecutive days of inflows, suggesting that institutional demand remains fragile and easily reversed by macroeconomic news.
Furthermore, Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) has yet to turn positive since peaking before the sharp drop in October. In this context, asserting that BTC has bottomed Dip is premature, as sentiment has not fully reset and volatility risk XEM high.
Accumulation is still occurring, but a psychological boost is needed to break out of the sideways trading range.
Accumulation is helping BTC hold above $60,000, but a breakout from this range requires a significant shift in market sentiment.
On the positive side, accumulation remains active. Large institutions like Binance and Strategy (MSTR) have been noted to have purchased a combined total of over 42,000 BTC so far in 2026, demonstrating a long-term positioning despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Structurally, however, Bitcoin remains consolidating above the $60,000 mark, and the key question is whether this sideways movement will end with a breakout.
One frequently mentioned condition is the shift in market sentiment . Therefore, information from Bloomberg becomes noteworthy, as a potential strategic cooperation between the two major economies could contribute to reducing macroeconomic "FUD" and supporting investor confidence, thereby impacting both the DXY and risky asset classes simultaneously.
Conclude
Bitcoin currently has structural support around $60,000 while also being strongly influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and USD movements. If the story of USD payments and economic cooperation strengthens the DXY, BTC may face short-term pressure; but if it helps to cool down uncertainty, improved sentiment could unlock the next upward move.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do news about the USD and DXY affect the price of Bitcoin?
A stronger USD typically makes bonds and high-yield assets more attractive, reducing the relative appeal of Bitcoin as a risk asset. Additionally, the USD/DXY ratio reflects macroeconomic expectations, directly impacting the risk appetite of crypto investors.
What does the $276 million outflow from Bitcoin ETFs tell us?
This indicates that demand from institutional investors is unstable and easily reversed by news. After a period of inflow, the return of net outflow reflects cautious sentiment, making it difficult for the market to convincingly confirm a Dip .
What does the $60,000 level mean for the BTC price structure?
This is a psychological and technical support zone being held by accumulated momentum. However, holding this zone does not guarantee a breakout; the subsequent trend depends on shifts in sentiment and the macroeconomic context.
