Goldman Sachs forecasts the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year.

The January CPI data wasn't as weak as feared, making the Fed's path to normalizing through interest rate cuts clearer, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management still expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, the next time in June.

The assessment, made on February 13th by Lindsay Rosner (Goldman Sachs Asset Management), emphasized that the key condition is the labor market: the FOMC is particularly sensitive to signs of weakening employment, so the direction of interest rates will depend on this development.

The Fed and its interest rate cut path: CPI support, employment is a prerequisite.

Lindsay Rosner said the January CPI wasn't as bad as feared, making the Fed's path toward further normalization through interest rate cuts seem clearer.

According to her, this direction depends on whether the job market continues to signal improvement. The key point is that the FOMC is described as highly sensitive to any signs of weakness in the labor market, so employment data will be a crucial variable for expectations of a rate cut.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management maintains its forecast that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. The timeline is specific: the next cut is expected in June.

Macroeconomic implications for the cryptocurrency market

Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, with June as the starting point, reinforce the scenario of gradually decreasing Capital costs in 2026.

However, the certainty of the roadmap depends on employment data, as the FOMC is sensitive to weakness in the labor market. For the cryptocurrency market, the short-term focus shifts to signals about labor health alongside inflation, as these could impact the timing and pace of interest rate cuts.