On February 23, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the government's emergency trade policy last Friday. However, trade uncertainty did not end with the judicial ruling; instead, it escalated again following a strong response from the administration. U.S. Trade Representative Greer stated explicitly that tariff policy would continue regardless of the outcome of the litigation, emphasizing that existing agreements remain binding. This means that even if the Supreme Court restricts some emergency authorization tools, the administration will still seek alternative levers through other trade investigations and legal sources to maintain policy continuity.
Trump subsequently announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, further amplifying policy uncertainty. The EU has demanded full transparency from the US and emphasized that "an agreement is an agreement"; the European Central Bank also pointed out that the most lacking element in the current global trading system is clarity. The UK, having lost its previous 10% tariff advantage, has seen its export costs rise significantly, making it a relatively disadvantaged party in this round of policy adjustments.
Market behavior reveals that declining policy predictability is reducing the risk tolerance for cross-border capital allocation. Funds are increasingly favoring short-term liquidity tools and defensive assets, while the willingness to absorb risky assets depends on whether clear policy signals emerge.
In the crypto market, the BTC decline has once again wiped out long positions, while a significant short position accumulation zone remains around the 70,000 psychological level. If macroeconomic uncertainty persists, funds may tend to reduce leverage, maintaining a range-bound trading pattern. Conversely, once clear policy guidance is obtained, short-term liquidity replenishment could trigger a passive sweep of liquidity above. The key issue now is not direction, but whether funds are willing to rebuild risk exposure.
