Market is forward looking. Hyperscaler capex rate of change decelerates from here. This plus extreme overcrowding is why semis will underperform going forward.

AI Capex Receivers / Hyperscaler Spenders is a vertical line...and people ask where the bubble is? 😅
Hyperscaler Spenders have underperformed the equal weight S&P 500 by -25% since their peak in late October. The @ForwardGuidance crew was early to be discussing this trend in Q4  x.com/qthomp/status/…

Quinn Thompson

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Monthly stablecoin volume reached $7.2 trillion in February 2026, surpassing the Automated Clearing House (ACH) network for the first time, which had $6.8 trillion.
ACH is an outgoing payment system...

Stablecoins have moved more money than the core US financial system.

President Trump's April 1, 2024 speech on the Iran conflict predicted another two to three weeks of intense military airstrikes, halting the brief recovery of the US stock market...

Three US stocks were heavily impacted by Trump's speech on Iran this week.

XRP 's 30-day liquidation index on Binance has fallen to a record low, near zero. Trading volume has plummeted from over $200 billion in January 2025 to virtually nothing.
The...