This article is machine translated
Show original
The current macro market is a bit perplexing. Normally, Middle East geopolitical risks would lead to liquidity flowing into safe-haven assets, resulting in a sell-off of risky assets. However, the current situation is different; gold and oil prices have fallen in the short term, while the US dollar has risen.
Regarding US Treasuries, both 10-year and 30-year bonds have been sold off, with yields rising. This means that financial liquidity is again converting assets into cash, primarily in US dollars, which is clearly illogical.
On the risky asset side, the weakening US stock market surprisingly strengthened tonight. It's clear that geopolitical risks haven't hindered the movement of risky assets, especially tech stocks. The VIX index has risen to around 21, indicating increased risk volatility. In this context, #Bitcoin's rebound, driven by the US stock market, is truly baffling.
Frankly, I'm unsure what the current financial market is trading on. Geopolitical risks haven't diminished. Is it because of Trump's speech tonight? Trump's speech tonight has undoubtedly increased Middle East geopolitical risks and raised the possibility of ground troops being deployed. Is this the main driver boosting risky assets?
Is America still great? Is the US military demonstrating its global dominance? Is this the current market narrative? Forgive me, but I really can't see through it right now. If this situation continues, I can only admire the Trump administration's excellent management skills!

Cato_KT
@CatoKt4
03-02
3月2日——3月6日宏观大事纪要:地缘事件周,宏观数据权重削弱!
本周就业数据周,原本2月份就业数据将会影响市场对于2026年降息的预期,引导金融市场走向,但是目前中东地缘风险爆发之后,就业数据权重本严重削弱。
周二,ADP小非农数据
周五,美国2月大非农数据,美国1月零售数据 x.com/CatoKt4/status…



US stocks didn't rise much, but BTC surged.
Sector:
From Twitter
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
Like
Add to Favorites
Comments
Share
Relevant content


