ETH/ BTC has risen for two consecutive weeks, indicating that money is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, a signal that often paves the way for altcoins to strengthen cyclically.
Amidst the sharp decline in the overall crypto market since the end of last year, some "internal" indicators have begun to improve. However, this momentum could still be limited if macroeconomic risks, particularly geopolitical tensions, shift to a risk-off state.
- A Capital rotation signal appeared when ETH/ BTC established a two-week upward trend.
- The selective altcoin market is strengthening, with many coins outperforming Bitcoin.
- Geopolitical risks could hinder the expansion of the altcoin cycle.
Altcoins are under pressure following a major correction in the crypto market.
Altcoins remain weighed down after the total crypto market Capital plummeted since last October, despite some early signs of structural improvement in the market.
TradingView data shows that approximately $838 billion has been wiped out from the total crypto market Capital since last October, reflecting the depth of the correction.
Although the broader trend remains influenced by macroeconomic headwinds, some initial signals suggest a shift in Capital turnover dynamics. Market-based indicators suggest internal structure is improving, although the speed and sustainability need further data verification.
Ethereum is regaining relative strength compared to Bitcoin.
ETH/ BTC is a clear indicator of Capital turnover in crypto, with increases usually implying Ethereum is absorbing liquidation faster than Bitcoin.
When ETH/ BTC rises, it indicates that Ethereum is absorbing liquidation faster than Bitcoin; when it falls, Bitcoin consolidates its dominance. In the last two weeks, the pair has created higher highs on the weekly chart, with modest gains but a direction that is significant in terms of money flow.
Interpreted in terms of Capital allocation behavior, this could be a sign that investors are beginning to reallocate to Ethereum instead of focusing solely on Bitcoin. Market history often shows that when Ethereum gains relative strength against Bitcoin, liquidation tends to flow further into select altcoins.
BingX can be used as an auxiliary observation point for Capital turnover, through Derivative signals such as open interest, funding, and liquidation, thereby helping traders assess whether Ethereum's relatively strong momentum is accompanied by excessive leverage.
The internal structure of the altcoin market is improving in a selective direction.
Altcoin metrics show that performance divergence is widening in favor of alternative assets, although we haven't yet entered a full-fledged "altcoin season."
The Altcoin Season Index reflects a gradual improvement, implying that performance among altcoins is beginning to diversify and some leading groups have emerged. While the market hasn't yet reached a clear "altcoin season," relative strength is no longer absolutely concentrated in Bitcoin.
Derivative data from CoinGlass shows that overall positions remain balanced, suggesting that the risk of forced liquidation has eased and speculative overheating has been tempered. You can XEM the details at: data .
In practice, stable Derivative conditions combined with improving spot demand often create a more sustainable Capital turnover, as cash flow is less disrupted by chain liquidations. However, "stability" does not mean the trend is certain; the market still needs further confirmation through the spread of performance and sustained buying power.
90-day performance and Bitcoin dominance are supporting the Capital rotation scenario.
Several altcoins have surged over the past 90 days, while Bitcoin dominance has slightly decreased, suggesting that money flows are expanding beyond Bitcoin.
CoinMarketCap data confirms selective strength, with Canton Network [CC] and LayerZero [ZRO] increasing by approximately 115% and 46% respectively over 90 days. Reference: data .
During the same period, 35 altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, suggesting that "market leadership" is expanding beneath the surface, rather than relying solely on a few large Capital assets.
Bitcoin dominance is also consistent with this reading: market share decreased from 59.26% in January 2026 to 58.01%. A decrease of 1.25 percentage points may seem small, but on a large market Capital scale, it could represent a significant outflow of Capital .
With Bitcoin's market Capital at approximately $1.32 trillion, a 1.25 percentage point drop implies that around $16.5 billion has shifted from Bitcoin to altcoins and stablecoins since January. This estimate is based on converting dominance to Capital capitalization, not actual "inflows/outflows" per wallet.
Macroeconomic risks could limit the recovery momentum of altcoins.
Geopolitical tensions and a risk-off environment could cause capital to flow back to defensive assets, disadvantaging altcoins which are Capital highly volatile and have thinner liquidation .
Macroeconomic uncertainty remains a key variable. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran increase global risk sensitivity. During periods of tension, Capital flows tend toward safe-haven assets like gold, putting pressure on highly volatile markets.
Crypto, especially altcoins, often experience stronger selling pressure during risk-off phases due to their smaller market depth and high "beta" levels. Therefore, the trajectory of a sustainable altcoin rebound depends not only on internal Capital turnover but also on the stability of the macroeconomic environment.
If tensions ease and Ethereum maintains relative strength against Bitcoin, the groundwork for a broader altcoin expansion could be strengthened. Conversely, if risk aversion increases, investors may delay increasing their holdings in high-risk digital assets.
Final summary
- The inflow of Capital into Ethereum for two consecutive weeks increases the probability of a new altcoin cycle forming.
- 35 altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, but escalating geopolitical tensions remain a constraint on risk appetite.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are ETH/ BTC considered a signal for Capital turnover in crypto?
ETH/ BTC reflects the relative strength of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. When ETH/ BTC rises, Ethereum typically absorbs liquidation faster than Bitcoin, signaling that money may be leaving the Bitcoin “axis” and spreading to higher-risk classes such as altcoins.
Does the rise in the Altcoin Season Index mean we've entered "altcoin season"?
Not necessarily. Improved indicators often suggest performance is beginning to diverge in favor of altcoins, but an “altcoin season” typically requires clearer signals of widespread bullish momentum and relative weakness in Bitcoin across the board.
What does the 1.25 percentage point drop in Bitcoin dominance tell us?
A decrease in Bitcoin dominance typically implies a shrinking market share of Bitcoin, with a significant portion of that Capital Capital shifting to altcoins and stablecoins. On a larger scale, small fluctuations in dominance can still represent a substantial amount of market Capital .
What risks could weaken the momentum of altcoins?
Macroeconomic and geopolitical risks can trigger a risk-off state, causing investors to prioritize defensive assets and reduce exposure to highly volatile assets. Altcoins are often more strongly affected due to their thin liquidation and high volatility.
