The goal of achieving double-digit economic growth over the next decade is not merely a development indicator, but a pivotal strategic choice. In the context of slowing global economic growth, fragmented global trade, and technological shifts shaping production structures, sustaining consistently high growth for decades requires very clear economic conditions.
Long-term GDP growth is determined by three factors: increased investment Capital , labor growth, and increased total factor productivity (TFP). Given that Vietnam has passed its peak "demographic dividend" period and the room for extensive Capital expansion is limited, the main drivers for double-digit growth can only come from significant improvements in productivity, efficient resource allocation, and institutional quality.
The development practices of South Korea, Singapore, and Israel demonstrate that sustained periods of 8%-10% annual growth are linked to profound structural reforms, increased productivity, and a shift to higher value chains in the global production chain . Based on this, the following nine pillars need to be implemented with clear economic implications and concrete evidence to ensure high and sustainable economic growth for Vietnam in the coming decade.
Firstly, institutional reforms are needed to reduce transaction costs and increase the efficiency of resource allocation.
Institutions are the foundation of growth. If institutions are slow, lack transparency, and are unpredictable, all investment efforts will be negated by opportunity costs.
A breakthrough that needs to be implemented is the application of Service Level Agreements (SLAs) between government agencies and businesses. Each ministry, sector, and locality needs to clearly announce: the processing time for investment applications; the deadline for land and construction approval; the customs clearance time; and the tax refund deadline. If deadlines are missed, the responsible agency must provide explanations and face corresponding penalties. This approach shifts the mindset from "management - licensing" to "service - commitment".
Institutional economics asserts that the lower the transaction costs, the more efficient the resource allocation, and the greater the growth rate. If administrative procedures are lengthy and forecasting is lacking, businesses will suffer from a "time tax" and an "uncertainty tax".
Applying the SLA mechanism helps standardize processing time, reduce investment delays, and increase Capital turnover. According to economic calculations, simply shortening project implementation time by 10% - 15% will significantly increase the efficiency of social Capital utilization, thereby raising Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Digital transformation in administration and the interconnection of land, tax, and customs data will reduce transaction costs and enhance transparency.
According to international practice, the predictability and timeliness of the administrative apparatus are national competitive advantages. When institutional trust is strengthened, investment Capital will be facilitated. For the economy, reducing one day of procedures means adding one day of growth.
Secondly, we need to overcome the fear of making mistakes in order to restore the motivation for making policy decisions.
High growth demands rapid decision-making. When officials are hesitant to take responsibility, the approval process is prolonged, slowing down Capital turnover and market opportunities.
From an economic perspective, "psychological costs" can create systemic delays. Therefore, improving legislation, clearly defining responsibilities, and protecting those who do the right thing will reduce "delay costs" and improve policy efficiency. Slow decision-making leads to missed opportunities; missed opportunities mean missed growth.
Therefore, the legal framework needs to be improved in the following directions: clarity, reduction of "grey areas" in decentralization, genuine delegation of power accompanied by checks and balances; protection of those who dare to think, dare to act, and act in accordance with regulations; and transparent rewards and punishments based on output results.
The guiding principle that needs to be instilled throughout the system is: "Think honestly - Act honestly - Take real responsibility - Achieve real results." This is the foundation of modern management, creating a favorable environment for innovation and decisive action.
Third, reposition production strategy to increase added value.
In the global value chain , the majority of value lies in design, R&D, branding, and after-sales service. If only outsourcing is involved, the profit margin and contribution of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) are low.
To achieve sustainable double-digit growth, the proportion of domestic value added must increase. This requires strong and effective investment in R&D, supporting businesses that own technology and inventions.
South Korea's experience shows that when R&D spending exceeds 3% of GDP, labor productivity and technology export capacity increase significantly. Without raising the economy's position in the global value chain , it is impossible to increase the growth rate.
Sustainable double-digit growth cannot rely on cheap outsourcing. Vietnam needs to shift strongly towards a "Made in Vietnam" strategy with the following components: increasing the localization rate; developing domestic R&D and design; mastering core technologies; and forming Vietnamese enterprises with global brands.
Logistics systems, inspection standards, and quality certifications must meet international standards. As global supply chain restructure, the country that masters the standards will master the value.
Fourth, regional linkages to create economies of scale.
High growth depends on market size, density of production linkages, and rational division of labor. Effective regional linkages help reduce transportation and intermediary costs, form specialized industry clusters, and increase infrastructure efficiency.
Regional linkages need to shift from formal to substantive, with: clearly defined Vai based on comparative advantages; synchronized infrastructure and planning; avoiding internal competition through short-term incentives; and forming regional-scale industrial clusters and innovation centers.
Effective linkages help create "sufficient scale" to participate deeply in global value chain . Economies of scale reduce average costs, thereby increasing productivity. Large scale creates large productivity; large productivity creates high growth.
Fifth, apply KPIs to improve public administration efficiency.
In managerial economics, performance measurement is a prerequisite for improving efficiency. When each level, sector, and field applies clear key performance indicators (KPIs), resource allocation and policy effectiveness evaluation become transparent.
Linking KPIs to public investment disbursement can reduce the amount of "idle" Capital , thereby increasing the Capital utilization rate and lowering the ICOR. Measuring work performance is a prerequisite for reform.
Discipline in implementation is a prerequisite for double-digit growth, therefore it is necessary to build a specific KPI system for each level, sector, and field, including: public investment disbursement rate; processing time for applications; level of business satisfaction; and quality of FDI attraction.
KPIs must be linked to salary, bonus, appointment, and accountability mechanisms. Without measurement, there is no management; without management, high growth is impossible.
Sixth, develop the Capital market to reduce dependence on bank credit.
To achieve 10% annual economic growth, social investment needs to be around 35%-40% of GDP, along with improved efficiency in the use of investment Capital .
If the economy's Capital relies primarily on short-term bank credit, liquidation risk and bad debt increase. Developing bond and stock markets helps provide long-term Capital , diversify risk, and improve the efficiency of Capital allocation. High growth requires long-term Capital ; long-term Capital requires a developed Capital market.
Seventh, upgrade the workforce to expand productivity margins.
According to the endogenous growth model, the quality of human resources determines the pace of technological innovation. When the workforce possesses high digital and technological skills, the ability to absorb technology increases.
Investing in STEM education, AI, and semiconductors will increase Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and extend the growth cycle. High-quality human resources are the engine of endogenous growth.
Eighth, productivity breakthroughs and innovation.
Labor productivity determines the ability to sustain long-term growth. If productivity increases by 6% - 7% per year, combined with reasonable Capital , the target of 10% per year has a sound economic basis. Digital transformation, automation, and R&D help increase output per unit of labor. Productivity is the real limit of growth.
Ninth, maintain macroeconomic stability to ensure sustainability.
International experience shows that high growth accompanied by macroeconomic instability will lead to a sharp decline in the growth cycle. Therefore, controlling inflation, public debt, and maintaining confidence in policies are conditions for businesses to invest long-term. Macroeconomic stability is the Peg of economic expectations.
Double-digit growth is not an emotional goal, but requires solving a clearly defined economic problem: increasing TFP, improving Capital efficiency, upgrading human resources, and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
If reforms are only localized, high growth will not be sustainable. But if the nine pillars are implemented synchronously, the economy will have a solid foundation to enter a new development trajectory. Double-digit growth does not come from expectations, but from the right economic structure and effective governance.
