Bitcoin is at a sensitive juncture after a prolonged decline. However, several macroeconomic indicators and on-chain data suggest a strong reversal is entirely possible. Many analysts even expect a medium-term recovery that could last for the next few months.
The Correlation Between Bitcoin and the ISM Manufacturing PMI Index
First, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded its second consecutive month of expansion. According to the latest report from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the PMI for February 2026 reached 52.4%. Although this figure is slightly lower than the previous month's 52.6%, it is still higher than market expectations of 51.8%.
This marks the second consecutive month that the index has remained above 50, officially ending a three-year downturn in US manufacturing. The increase in this index indicates an environment where investors are beginning to broaden their risk appetite, creating favorable conditions for Capital inflows into Bitcoin.
Analyst JOE Consorti highlighted the correlation between this index and Bitcoin prices in previous cycles. He suggested that the current context could signal a trend reversal.
"Historically, this often coincides with the early stages of BTC bull markets (except for 2022)," JOE Consorti noted.
Bitcoin price versus the ISM PMI index. Source: JOE Consorti
Bitcoin's Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) Indicator Shows a Shift in Sentiment
Secondly, CW analysts believe a “golden Golden Cross” is about to appear on Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator.
According to CryptoQuant – an on-chain data analytics platform – IFP measures the flow of Bitcoin between spot and Derivative exchanges.
This flow data reflects market sentiment. When a large amount of Bitcoin is moved to Derivative exchanges, the indicator signals that the market is entering a bullish phase, as traders move coins to open Longing positions in the Derivative market.
Conversely, when Bitcoin is transferred from a Derivative exchange to a spot exchange, the indicator signals the start of a bearish phase. This situation typically occurs when traders close Longing positions and large investors reduce their risk tolerance.
The flow of Bitcoin transactions between exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
In the past, this signal has appeared before strong rallies from 2023 to 2025. Currently, after a year of correction, the Golden Cross is approaching. If this signal is confirmed, it could mark the beginning of a new bull cycle for Bitcoin.
“A golden cross is about to appear on the BTC Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator. After a year of correction, the price is ready to rise again. Everyone should buckle up,” CW analyst Chia .
Five consecutive months of red candlesticks indicate selling pressure is drying up.
Third, the appearance of five consecutive red monthly candles is extremely rare. Bitcoin closed the February 2026 monthly candle with its fifth consecutive month of decline. This is only the second time in history that such a chain has occurred.
This first occurred during the 2018–2019 period, when Bitcoin recorded six consecutive months of red candlesticks. Following this, Bitcoin experienced five consecutive months of gains, with its price increasing by over 300%, from approximately $3,400 to $14,000.
Although historical data is limited, prolonged chain often indicate that selling pressure is gradually easing. When buying demand returns, a strong reversal may occur.
"Five or six months of red candles are no longer that important, because most of the decline is behind us, and the full upside potential is still ahead," analyst Satoshi Flipper commented.
Monthly Bitcoin price chart. Source: Coinglass
These signals have previously confirmed months-long upward trends. A recent report by BeInCrypto also reinforces the scenario that Bitcoin has entered a Dip phase. However, analysts still believe there is still the possibility of a further price drop.
According to BeInCrypto experts, the developments in March will likely depend on whether the $62,300 support level holds or the $79,000 resistance level is broken first.
