Iran-US War and Bitcoin: Two Conflicting Forces How does Bitcoin react to geopolitical shocks? The notion that "war equals rise because it is digital gold" explains only half the reality. In reality, two mechanisms acting in opposite directions coexist, and which one is dominant depends on the duration of the war. Mechanism 1: Digital Gold — Short wars favor BTC Immediately after the outbreak of war, Bitcoin plummets. This is a temporary phenomenon caused by leveraged forced liquidation. Once liquidation ends, selling pressure dissipates, and a V-shaped rebound occurs as its "uncensored store of value" attribute comes into play. 2020 Soleimani Incident: -5% → +25% within 2 weeks 2022 Russia-Ukraine War: -8% → +17% within 2 weeks 2026 Iran-US War: -12% → +6% relief in progress within days The pattern is clear. If the war ends quickly, a short squeeze plus demand for safe haven assets drives the price up. Mechanism 2: Oil → Inflation → Interest Rates — A long war is disadvantageous for BTC If the war drags on, a completely different path is activated. Hormuz blockade → Oil price surge → Inflation reignites → Fed halts/re-raises interest rate cuts → Liquidity contraction → BTC declines 2022 was exactly this scenario. Prolonged oil war → Energy surge → Historical interest rate hike → BTC drops 78% from $69K to $15K. Bitcoin loses not to the "war," but to "liquidity contraction." Key point: The duration of the war is the switch. What we need to look at right now is not the Bitcoin chart, but oil prices (WTI) and interest rates (US10Y, FedWatch). If oil prices exceed $100 and remain there for a long time, Mechanism 2 is activated; if they stabilize, Mechanism 1 prevails. Remember this: The fear of war drives Bitcoin up, while the economic consequences of war drive Bitcoin down.