The precious metals market entered March amidst significant volatility, but the long-term trend remains bullish. After a year of rapid growth, the question is no longer "will gold rise?", but rather "how high will it rise?" and "what is the risk of a correction?".
Gold: Macroeconomic drivers remain dominant.
In just 12 months, the price of gold has nearly doubled, rising from around $2,600 per ounce to over $5,000 and setting a new peak around $5,589 per ounce. Currently, the price is holding around $5,300 per ounce, indicating that demand remains strong.
Factors supporting gold include:
The central bank continues to increase its reserves.
The US dollar weakens cyclically.
Expectations for the Fed to ease monetary policy.
Prolonged geopolitical tensions
The trend of decreasing reliance on assets priced in USD.
Institutional capital flows have yet to show signs of a significant withdrawal. This suggests that the upward trend is structural, not simply a speculative wave.
However, after a prolonged upward trend, technical corrections are inevitable. The range of fluctuations may be larger than in the previous period, especially as the market reassesses interest rate expectations.
Silver: Highly volatile, great potential but higher risk.
Silver briefly surged to around $120 per ounce before retreating to around $85–95. Compared to gold, silver has a higher volatility coefficient and tends to amplify trends.
Key characteristics of silver:
Sensitive to industrial cycles
Rapid increase as speculative money flows back in.
Sharp decline as market becomes cautious.
In the short term, silver may consolidate below the $100 mark, awaiting further impetus from industrial demand and monetary policy.
What should investors be aware of in March?
Maintain a reasonable proportion of precious metals in your portfolio.
Prioritize allocation over "buying the Dip".
Closely monitor interest rate and USD developments.
Prepare yourself mentally for strong tremors.
The biggest risk for long-term investors doesn't lie in short-term volatility, but in missing out on a sustained uptrend if macroeconomic factors continue to favor precious metals.
In short
Gold remains supported by the global monetary and risk environment. Silver offers higher returns but comes with greater volatility. March is likely to continue to be a volatile period for precious metals.
What percentage of your portfolio are you allocating to gold or silver?
