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Here's a scary story: Walmart's WMT forward PE ratio is twice that of Nvidia's NVDA. WMT's market capitalization is approaching one trillion dollars, ranking among the top ten US stocks, with a 3-fold increase in 5 years, an annualized return of 25%. Costco next door also tripled in 5 years. These two grocery stores have returns that far surpass most tech stocks. Currently, WMT's forward PE ratio is 42, while NVDA, the world's hottest AI chip company, is only 21. A grocery store is twice as expensive as a GPU seller. The market is worried about the cyclical nature of AI capital expenditure, giving it a cyclical discount, while favoring supermarket stocks—where people need to eat regardless of economic conditions—due to predictable cash flow certainty. Whether AI is in a bubble is a frequently discussed issue. The explosive productivity and transformative impact of AI on white-collar jobs are undeniable. The current lack of consensus is whether the short-to-medium term AI capital expenditure by major companies is excessive and constitutes a bubble. If you firmly believe that future token consumption will be ten to a hundred times higher than it is now, then NVDA still seems reasonably priced.

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