US CPI data drops tonight. January came in at 2.4%. But oil has surged nearly 50% since January. Brent touched $119 last week before pulling back to around $90 today. The energy component is going to be ugly. If February's print crosses back above 2.7%, the rate cut narrative is dead for H1. If it somehow holds in the low 2s, risk assets breathe easier. With oil doing what it's doing, that's unlikely. This number sets the tone for the rest of March. Follow for the breakdown.