The Altcoin seasonal index has fallen to 36. What is the market waiting for?
The latest data shows that CoinMarketCap's Altcoin seasonal index is currently at 36.
What does 36 mean? Simply put, in the past 90 days, only about one-third of the top 100 Altcoin by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) outperformed Bitcoin. The remaining two-thirds were completely crushed by Bitcoin.
This number has dropped slightly compared to last month. In mid-March, an analyst used a different metric to calculate that 24 out of 55 mainstream Altcoin outperformed Bitcoin over the past 60 days, an index of approximately 44%. However, looking at the 90-day perspective now, the number 36 more accurately reflects the recent market situation—it's a Bitcoin arena, not an Altcoin arena.
Here are some key data points:
- Bitcoin's dominance: 56.11%. This means that in the entire cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin alone accounts for nearly 60% of the market capitalization, while the remaining hundreds or thousands of coins share the remaining 40%.
- The dire situation of Altcoin: Approximately 38% of Altcoin(excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins) are trading near all-time lows. This is no joke; nearly 40% of projects are languishing at rock bottom.
- Social sentiment: Discussions about "altseason" on social media have dropped to a two-year low. What does it mean when people stop talking? It means either they're too shocked by the losses or they're simply too lazy to watch.
- Bitcoin price: Currently fluctuating between $67,000 and $71,000, still quite a distance from the 2025 high of over $120,000.
So what stage are we in now?
CoinMarketCap's algorithm divides the index into three tiers: above 75 is Altcoin season (more than 75% of Altcoin outperform Bitcoin), below 25 is Bitcoin season (more than 75% of Altcoin underperform Bitcoin), and the middle is the neutral zone.
The number 36 is still hovering on the edge of neutrality and the Bitcoin season. While it hasn't officially entered the "Bitcoin season" range (≤25), it's not far off.
Let's look back at history: On September 20, 2025, this index surged to 78. Back then, people in the group were constantly shouting that a bull market was coming and Altcoin were about to take off. By the beginning of 2026, the index started to fall, dropping to 29 in January, rebounding slightly in February and March before falling again, and is now at 36.
But one detail is worth noting.
Analysts have pointed out that although the index is not high, 24 out of 55 mainstream Altcoin have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 60 days. This proportion is actually higher than last month.
How should we understand this? There are two possibilities:
- Altcoin tend to fall more slowly than Bitcoin when prices drop, so they perform relatively better.
- Funds are indeed quietly flowing into certain sectors, but they haven't yet reached a significant scale.
Based on the data, the first possibility is more likely. This is because the overall market sentiment is still in the "fear" range, and funds have not flowed back on a large scale; only some Altcoin have shown slightly better resilience than Bitcoin.
So what's next?
Three signals worth watching:
First, can Bitcoin's dominance rate remain stable? It's currently around 56%. Historically, only when it falls below 52%-54% and fails to hold that level can it indicate that funds are truly starting to flow into Altcoin.
Second, the movement of stablecoins. The total market capitalization of stablecoins is fluctuating. If there's a sustained inflow of funds into exchanges, it indicates that off-exchange funds are preparing to enter the market.
Third, will a leading sector emerge? Which of the following—AI concepts, RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization), or Layer 2—can spearhead a surge and potentially ignite market sentiment?
To summarize briefly
Now is not the season for Altcoin. A 36% index, a 56% Bitcoin dominance, and 38% of Altcoin languishing at the bottom—all these figures point to the same thing: the market is waiting.
What are we waiting for? We're waiting for Bitcoin to stabilize or even reach new highs, for macro liquidity to improve, for regulations to become clearer, and for funds to truly overflow from Bitcoin.
Some analysts say that a true Altcoin season typically requires Bitcoin to first reach a new high, then consolidate for a period to allow profits to flow out, before Altcoin can finally take center stage. Currently, Bitcoin is still more than 40% away from its previous high, so this condition hasn't been met yet.
For the average player, at this stage, it's best to observe more and act less. Keep an eye on the index, but if it consistently hovers below 40, don't rush in. It's your money; only those who can wait can pick up bargains.
[Risk Warning] This article is for industry perspectives and strategic interpretation only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market carries extremely high investment risks, and regulatory policies are subject to uncertainty. Please be sure to comply with local laws and regulations, invest rationally, and make prudent decisions.
