Introduction: When the "madman's" prophecy comes true
In March 2026, as global markets oscillated between AI frenzy and geopolitical uncertainty, Arthur Hayes, one of the most controversial and influential thinkers in the crypto world, once again uttered a doomsday prophecy that would take Wall Street by storm. In an in-depth conversation with renowned crypto journalist Natalie Brunell, the legendary founder of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, with his characteristic sharpness, candor, and insight, painted a disturbing yet logically sound vision of the future: a job massacre targeting the "white-collar class" triggered by artificial intelligence (AI) will ignite the next global financial crisis, forcing the Federal Reserve to restart the printing press on a scale far exceeding that of the pandemic. Amidst this deluge of fiat currencies, Bitcoin will no longer be merely "digital gold," but the sole Noah's Ark, its final price "exploding" to the million-dollar level.
This nearly two-hour conversation was more than just a market prediction; it was a comprehensive worldview statement that blended macroeconomics, geopolitics, technological philosophy, and individual survivalism. Hayes's views, like himself, are full of contradictory charm: he is both a shrewd trader trained on Wall Street and a radical rebel against the existing financial system; he can sense the signs of crisis in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and decipher geopolitical codes in China's energy policy; he warns of a "Minsky moment" brought about by AI, yet embraces AI tools to improve his research efficiency. He tells ordinary people that Bitcoin cannot immediately solve their financial difficulties, yet firmly believes it is the only hope for ordinary people to combat currency devaluation.
This article aims to comprehensively and systematically deconstruct this important dialogue. We will not merely restate Hayes's startling conclusions, but dedicate ourselves to delving into the core of his thought, excavating the logical chain of his argument, and conducting critical analysis incorporating external materials. The article will be divided into five chapters:
1. Chapter 1: The Pulse of the Macro — A Concerto of Liquidity Alarms and Geopolitics: Analyzing how Hayes views Bitcoin as a “barometer” of global dollar liquidity and how he views the impact of war and sovereign state behavior on the crypto market.
2. Chapter Two: AI's Doomsday Judgment — From the "Minsky Moment" to the Collapse of the Social Contract: An in-depth analysis of Hayes' core argument, namely how AI can trigger an unprecedented credit crisis by disrupting white-collar employment.
3. Chapter Three: The Ultimate Script of Bitcoin — The Art of “Waiting for Money to Be Printed”: A complete presentation of Hayes’ Bitcoin investment strategy, explaining why he believes that “war is good for Bitcoin” is a false proposition, while “money printing is good for Bitcoin” is the truth.
4. Chapter Four: The Battlefield of the Future — CBDCs, Privacy Coins, and the Quantum Ghost: Exploring Hayes' views on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), privacy coins such as Zcash, and his assessment of the threat posed by quantum computing.
5. Chapter Five: Personal Survival Guide — How to Survive in a Collapsing World: A summary of Hayes' advice for ordinary investors, including how to adjust mindset, manage risk, and reposition personal value in the age of AI.
Through this article, we hope to guide readers through the labyrinth of Hayes's ideas, helping them understand why he persisted in issuing such a piercing yet resounding warning amidst the market's clamor. Whether you ultimately agree or disagree, this intellectual journey will force you to re-examine your own understanding of the future, wealth, and the era we live in.
Chapter 1: The Pulse of the Macro - A Concerto of Liquidity Alarms and Geopolitics
In Arthur Hayes' grand narrative, Bitcoin is not an isolated technological utopia, but a highly sensitive sensor embedded in the global macroeconomic and geopolitical chessboard. He repeatedly emphasizes that to understand Bitcoin's price fluctuations, one must step outside the "small circle" of the crypto world and examine it within the context of the ebb and flow of global dollar liquidity, the strategic games of sovereign nations, and the shadow of war. This chapter will delve into Hayes' macroeconomic analytical framework, revealing how he defines Bitcoin as a "liquidity alarm" and elucidating his unique insights into key macroeconomic variables such as gold, war, and the US-China rivalry.
1.1 Bitcoin: The Birth of a "Liquidity Alarm"
Hayes' first core concept, and the key to understanding his entire analytical framework, is to define Bitcoin as "a liquidity fire alarm." He argues that Bitcoin's relative weakness over the past six to nine months (compared to the stability of the Nasdaq and the rise in gold) is precisely a warning from the market: "There is currently not enough dollar liquidity in the market to meet various liquidity demands."
The brilliance of this argument lies in its direct linking of Bitcoin's value capture mechanism to the "lifeblood" of the global financial system—the liquidity of the US dollar. Hayes's logical chain is as follows:
1. The essence of the modern financial system: It is a Federal Reserve system that relies heavily on leverage. Any slight disturbance, especially a contraction in the credit market, will create a huge demand for liquidity.
2. An Emerging Liquidity "Black Hole": The AI revolution has created a huge demand for capital expenditures (Capex) on hyperscale data centers. Giants such as Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft are investing heavily in building AI infrastructure, which is drawing massive amounts of dollar liquidity from the real economy.
3. Bitcoin's Reaction: As a global, 24/7, borderless risk asset, Bitcoin is most sensitive to the tightness of liquidity. When the real economy (such as AI infrastructure) and traditional financial markets are scrambling for limited US dollars, the Bitcoin market, with its highest risk and most fragile consensus, will naturally feel the chill first, manifesting as a price drop or stagnation. Therefore, the decline in Bitcoin's price is not due to a problem with its own fundamentals, but rather because it has acted as a "canary in the coal mine" for the overall system's liquidity crunch.
“Bitcoin’s performance tells us that there isn’t enough dollar liquidity in the market to meet various liquidity needs, especially those related to capital expenditures for hyperscale data centers. This is why Bitcoin has underperformed over the past six to nine months.” — Arthur Hayes
1.2 The Logic of Gold: A "Safe Haven" for Sovereign Nations
In stark contrast to Bitcoin's "alarm" role is gold. Hayes observed that while Bitcoin underperformed, gold prices steadily rose. He explicitly stated that this was not a traditional "debasement trade," but rather stemmed from deep-seated strategic considerations at the sovereign state level.
“I believe the rise in gold prices is not due to ‘currency devaluation trades,’ but rather because sovereign nations are increasingly realizing that the risks of holding dollar assets are increasing.” — Arthur Hayes
This judgment is based on the following observations:
• The “weaponization” of dollar assets: Following the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US and EU's freezing of Russian central bank assets served as a wake-up call for all non-Western countries. This demonstrated that holding dollar assets (such as US Treasury bonds) is not absolutely safe, and ownership can be stripped or restricted at any time due to geopolitical factors. Ultimately, the interpretation of your dollar assets rests with the US Treasury Secretary.
• A Rational Choice for Sovereign Nations: Faced with the political risks of dollar assets, seeking a genuine store of value that is not controlled by a single nation has become an inevitable choice. Gold, as a globally recognized, physically existing, and sovereign-free hard asset for thousands of years, naturally becomes the first choice for central banks around the world. Since the 2008 financial crisis, global central banks have been continuously increasing their net gold holdings, and this trend has accelerated significantly after 2022.
• Limitations of Bitcoin: While Bitcoin is theoretically a borderless hard asset, it remains too novel, too volatile, and lacks historical consensus for sovereign states. More importantly, Bitcoin's computing power, core developers, exchanges, and other key infrastructure are still highly concentrated within the sphere of influence of the United States and its allies. This makes its "censorship resistance" and "neutrality" far less reliable than gold in the eyes of sovereign states. Therefore, in the game of sovereign hedging, gold takes far greater priority than Bitcoin.
By interpreting the different performances of Bitcoin and gold, Hayes paints a multi-layered picture of global capital flows: retail investors and some institutional investors are surfing the ocean of risky assets, their behavior mainly influenced by short-term liquidity (Bitcoin is the bellwether); while sovereign nations are conducting a "silent revolution" on wealth sovereignty in the deeper sea, with gold as their submarine nuclear submarine.
1.3 War and Money Printing: The Ultimate Driving Force of the Macro-Scenario
Haye's macro analysis ultimately points to a simple yet powerful conclusion: "War means printing money, and printing money is good for Bitcoin." This is the cornerstone of his entire investment strategy.
He repeatedly warned investors not to simply assume that "war is good for Bitcoin." War itself brings uncertainty, risk aversion, and competition for liquidity, which in the short term could actually lead to a sell-off of risky assets, including Bitcoin. His concern about a potential escalation of the US-Iran conflict in March 2026 was the direct reason he advised "holding back for now."
The real benefit comes from the inevitable outcome of war—governments have no choice but to start printing money to support their massive war machines.
“My view is that the longer this conflict lasts, the more likely the Federal Reserve will start printing money to support America’s war machine. And when central banks start printing money, that’s when I’ll choose to buy Bitcoin.” — Arthur Hayes
Behind this logic lies a profound insight into the essence of the modern national fiscal and monetary system:
• The bottomless financial pit of war: The cost of modern warfare is astronomical, far exceeding what normal tax revenue can cover.
• Path dependence of debt monetization: In today's world, where the gold standard has long been abolished, the most convenient way for governments to raise funds is to issue government bonds, which are then purchased directly or indirectly by their central banks (the Federal Reserve) through quantitative easing (QE), which is essentially "printing money".
• A historical iron law: Looking back at history, from the Vietnam War to the Iraq War and then to the COVID-19 pandemic, every major national crisis has ultimately led to large-scale monetary expansion.
Haye's investment strategy thus became exceptionally clear and patient: "Wait for the money printing to begin, don't try to predict the market." He advised investors to focus on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and interest rate policy rather than listening to media propaganda about war. When the money printing machines roared back to life, that would be the "explosive" moment to buy Bitcoin.
1.4 China's Role: Energy Policy and Computing Power Landscape
When discussing the global landscape, Hayes also offered a unique interpretation of China's role. He believes that Western observers often misinterpret the Chinese government's attitude towards Bitcoin.
• The truth behind the hashrate ban: China's large-scale crackdown on Bitcoin mining in 2021 was primarily not due to hostility towards cryptocurrencies, but rather based on considerations of national energy security strategy. Amidst increasingly tense international tensions, China wanted to use its precious energy resources (especially fossil fuels like coal) to support the real economy and strategic emerging industries (such as electric vehicles, batteries, and robots), rather than wasting them on Bitcoin mining.
• The Tacit Existence of “National Teams”: Despite the crackdown on private mining farms, Hayes points out that data shows 20%-30% of global Bitcoin hashrate still originates from China. He speculates that these are likely “national team” mining farms linked to local governments or state-owned enterprises, whose existence is tacitly approved and may even serve as a strategic reserve for the state during special periods.
• RMB Internationalization First: Fundamentally, the Chinese government's core financial strategy is to promote the internationalization of the RMB and challenge the dollar's hegemony. Bitcoin occupies a peripheral position in this grand strategy; the government neither encourages nor completely suppresses it, but rather adopts a pragmatic approach to control.
Through his precise grasp of the macro-level pulse, Hayes has constructed a robust framework for understanding Bitcoin's long-term value. Within this framework, Bitcoin is no longer an isolated technological toy, but a key variable in the core game of global liquidity, geopolitics, and the future of currency. Understanding this is crucial to truly comprehending his complex and "anticipatory" fear of the next crisis triggered by AI.
Chapter Two: The Doomsday Judgment of AI — From the “Minsky Moment” to the Collapse of the Social Contract
If global liquidity is the "weather system" of Hayes' macroeconomic analysis, then the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is the "asteroid" he predicts will soon collide with Earth. In this conversation, Hayes put forward his boldest and most unsettling assertion to date: AI will trigger an unprecedented credit crisis, far exceeding the scale and depth of 2008, by systematically destroying the "professional class." This is not only a bullish reason for Bitcoin, but also a fundamental warning about the structure of modern society and economic stability. This chapter will delve into this core assertion, dismantling its complete logical chain from technological shock to financial collapse.
2.1 “White-Collar Massacre”: AI’s First Victim
Hayes's argument begins with an accurate assessment of the current stage of AI development. He argues that, unlike past technological revolutions (such as the Industrial Revolution and the Internet Revolution), the unique aspect of this AI revolution is that it primarily impacts not manual laborers, but rather the "white-collar class" whose core work involves knowledge and information processing. This includes lawyers, accountants, consultants, analysts, programmers, and even some creative workers.
“What AI is doing is replacing all those people who sit in front of computers making money by moving information… For the first time in human history, we have a technology that can intellectually compete with humans.” — Arthur Hayes
He believes that the mechanism by which this subversion occurs is:
• The commodification of cognitive abilities: In the past, the value of white-collar workers lay in their professional knowledge, analytical skills, and efficiency in information processing. Now, large language models (LLMs) are learning and replicating these abilities at an astonishing speed. From drafting legal documents to analyzing financial statements, from writing code to market research, AI is turning these once expensive "cognitive services" into inexpensive, mass-producible commodities.
• The End of the Productivity Paradox: Hayes cites economist Robert Solow's "productivity paradox"—"We see computers everywhere, but not in productivity statistics." He believes AI will completely end this paradox. An AI-powered employee could be 10 or 100 times more productive than before. This means companies will no longer need large white-collar teams; a few "super employees" combined with powerful AI tools can accomplish the work of hundreds or thousands of people in the past.
• Value chain restructuring: In the AI era, value will concentrate at two extremes. At one end are giants who own and control AI models and computing infrastructure (such as Nvidia and OpenAI); at the other end are "content creators" (Hayes calls them "the prompters") who possess unique creativity, can raise novel questions, and push the boundaries of human experience. Meanwhile, the vast majority of white-collar workers in the middle, engaged in repetitive information processing, will face the risk of being "hollowed out."
2.2 The “Minsky Moment” of the Credit Crisis: When Income Disappears, What Happens to Debt?
The direct consequence of the “white-collar massacre” is not merely a social problem, but will rapidly evolve into a financial crisis. Here, Hayes introduces the theory of economist Hyman Minsky, predicting that we will usher in an AI-driven “Minsky Moment”—that is, the moment when asset prices suddenly collapse after a long period of prosperity due to the intensification of internal contradictions.
The transmission mechanism of this crisis is as follows:
1. Income collapse: When a large number of high-income white-collar workers face unemployment or a sharp drop in income, their ability to repay debts will decline sharply.
2. The Domino Effect of Debt Defaults: White-collar workers are the cornerstone of the modern consumer credit system. Their income supports massive mortgage (real estate), car loan, student loan, and credit card debt. Once this group's income sources dry up, a large-scale wave of defaults will be inevitable.
3. A spiral of declining asset prices: The wave of defaults will first impact the real estate market. When a large number of properties are sold off due to the inability to repay mortgages, housing prices will face enormous downward pressure. The decline in real estate prices will further weaken household balance sheets, triggering more defaults and creating a vicious cycle.
4. Systemic Risk in the Banking System: Unlike the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the root cause of this crisis is not "toxic assets," but "toxic liabilities"—that is, the systemic loss of borrowers' earning capacity. Seemingly "high-quality" loan portfolios held by banks, targeting high-income white-collar workers, can turn into bad debts overnight. This will lead to a rapid depletion of bank capital, a freeze in the credit market, and ultimately trigger a full-blown banking crisis.
“This will be a credit crisis because all these people’s income will disappear. They have mortgages, car loans, student loans… When their income disappears, they can’t pay their debts. This will trigger a crisis even worse than 2008.” — Arthur Hayes
2.3 The Collapse of the Social Contract and the Inevitability of "Universal Basic Income"
Faced with such a massive economic collapse and social unrest, Hayes predicted that governments would have no choice but to take the most radical intervention measures to prevent the complete disintegration of social order. This would inevitably lead to two consequences:
• Unprecedented Money Printing: To rescue the bankrupt banking system and provide relief to the massively unemployed, governments will be forced to launch money printing programs far exceeding those during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hayes believes this is no longer a matter of trillions of dollars, but rather tens of trillions or even hundreds of trillions of dollars. The purchasing power of fiat currency will be completely destroyed.
• The arrival of "Universal Basic Income" (UBI): To appease the massive population unemployed due to AI and prevent them from taking to the streets and causing social unrest, governments will be forced to implement some form of "Universal Basic Income." This essentially involves directly distributing newly printed money to the public. However, this is not a welfare program, but rather a "tranquilizer," at the cost of diluting the wealth of all savers.
“Central banks around the world will inevitably continue printing money to ensure that people don’t take to the streets and cause unrest in the face of the economic and employment shocks brought about by AI. Until we find a way to fairly distribute the wealth generated by this productivity, owning assets that perform well in a monetary glut is one way to cope.” — Arthur Hayes
In this process, the social contract of "work-income-consumption" upon which modern society operates will be completely broken. People will no longer be paid for their work, but will receive government-distributed digital currency simply for their "existence." This is not only an economic crisis, but also a profound social and civilizational crisis.
2.4 Critical Analysis: The Rationality and Potential Variables of the Prophecy
Hayes's "AI doomsday theory" is undoubtedly shocking, but is its logical chain flawless? We need to examine it critically from several aspects:
• The speed and scope of disruption: The speed and scope at which AI will replace white-collar jobs may be exaggerated. Many knowledge-based jobs are not purely information processing; they also involve complex interpersonal communication, emotional insight, strategic judgment, and ethical considerations, which AI cannot currently completely replace. A more likely scenario is a human-machine collaborative model, rather than a simple "replacement."
• New Job Creation: While technological revolutions destroy old jobs, they also constantly create new ones. The AI economy itself will also spawn new professions, such as AI trainers, prompting engineers, AI ethicists, and human-computer interaction designers. The key question is whether the speed of new job creation can keep up with the speed of old job disappearance, and the difficulty of workers' skill transformation.
• Policy Responses and Buffers: Governments and regulatory agencies are not passive bystanders. They may buffer the impact of AI through education reforms, lifelong learning programs, gradual tax policy adjustments (such as taxing AI gains), and more prudent credit regulation, thus preventing a "hard landing" crisis.
Despite these potential buffers, Hayes' core prediction—that AI will pose a fundamental challenge to the modern economic system based on the "income-debt" model—remains highly persuasive. What he depicts may be an exaggerated and accelerated future, but the direction it points to deserve deep reflection from every policymaker, investor, and ordinary citizen. It is precisely based on this profound belief in this "inevitable crisis" that Hayes has constructed his seemingly radical, yet logically consistent, Bitcoin investment ark.
Chapter 3: The Ultimate Script for Bitcoin — The Art of “Waiting for Money to Be Printed”
Based on his profound insights into macro liquidity and the AI crisis, Arthur Hayes has developed a clear, counterintuitive, and highly disciplined Bitcoin investment strategy. At its core is not chasing market trends or predicting short-term prices, but rather "waiting for the printer to go brrr." This chapter will present Hayes' complete Bitcoin investment playbook, explaining why he considers the notion that "war is good for Bitcoin" a false premise, and detailing his art of patiently waiting for macroeconomic signals.
3.1 Bursting the Bubble of "War Benefits Bitcoin"
In the crypto community, a widely circulated claim is that "war is good for Bitcoin," based on the logic that geopolitical conflicts will highlight Bitcoin's value as a "safe-haven asset" and a "censorship-resistant asset." However, Hayes sharply criticizes this, arguing that it is a dangerous and wishful simplification.
He believes that war is bearish for Bitcoin in the short term for the following reasons:
• Risk-off: The outbreak of war can trigger market panic, causing investors to sell off all risky assets and turn to the most traditional and liquid safe-haven asset—US dollar cash. In this "cash is king" moment, Bitcoin, as a highly volatile emerging asset, will inevitably be sold off.
• Liquidity Tightening: The uncertainty of war can freeze credit markets, prompting financial institutions to hoard liquidity for unforeseen circumstances, further exacerbating global dollar liquidity shortages. As discussed in Chapter 1, Bitcoin is the most liquidity-sensitive asset, and it will be the first to be affected when liquidity recedes.
• Liquidation Chain Reaction: A drop in prices can trigger a chain of liquidations by leveraged traders, further amplifying downward pressure on the market.
“If I only had $1 to invest right now, I would choose to wait and see rather than buy Bitcoin immediately… My view is that the longer this conflict lasts, the more likely the Federal Reserve will start printing money to support America’s war machine. And when central banks start printing money, that’s when I will choose to buy Bitcoin.” — Arthur Hayes
Therefore, Hayes' strategy is to view war as a "prelude" to money printing, rather than a "signal" to buy. He cautions investors against impulsive actions amidst the gunfire, urging them to calmly observe the government's fiscal and monetary responses. The true "main upward trend" is not driven by the conflict itself, but by the policies implemented to address it.
3.2 The core of the investment strategy: observation, waiting, and action.
Haye's investment methodology can be summarized in three steps: observe macroeconomic signals, patiently wait for confirmation, and then act decisively.
Step 1: Observe macroscopic signals
He focuses on only one core signal: the expansion of global dollar liquidity, i.e., "money printing." This can be measured through the following specific indicators:
• Federal Reserve balance sheet: Will it resume expansion (i.e., implement quantitative easing QE)?
• Interest rate policy: Is the cycle shifting from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts?
• Fiscal deficit: Does the government finance wars or economic crises through large-scale debt issuance?
• Reverse Repurchase Market (RRP): A decline in the RRP balance usually means that liquidity is flowing back from the Federal Reserve into the financial system.
Step 2: Wait patiently for confirmation.
The essence of Haye's strategy lies in his extraordinary patience. He emphasizes that investors' greatest enemies are their own emotions and the fear of missing out (FOMO). Before clear macroeconomic signals indicate a shift in direction, any attempt to "buy the dips" is a dangerous gamble.
He cited the US-Iran conflict in March 2026 as an example. Although he foresaw that the conflict would ultimately lead to money printing, his choice at the time was to "stand still," even preparing for a further drop in Bitcoin prices (such as falling below $60,000). This discipline stemmed from his profound understanding of market cycles: before the printing presses are turned on, the market may experience a painful "darkness before dawn."
Step 3: Take Decisive Action
Once the signal of money printing is confirmed, Hayes advocates for a decisive and large-scale purchase of Bitcoin. Because at that moment, the logic behind Bitcoin's upward trend will become incredibly solid:
• Absolute scarcity of supply: Bitcoin's hard cap of 21 million coins makes it the best "digital real estate" to counter unlimited fiat currency.
• Exponential growth in demand: When all fiat currencies are depreciating, global capital seeking to preserve value will flood into Bitcoin, the only "ark of value".
• Non-linear price "explosion": Due to the inelasticity of supply, a surge in demand will lead to a non-linear, exponential increase in prices. Hayes' "million-dollar" target is based on this end-game scenario of extreme supply-demand imbalance.
3.3 The Million Dollar Goal: A Mathematical Deduction of the Endgame
Haye's prediction of Bitcoin reaching a million dollars is not an empty slogan, but rather a logical deduction based on the end result. Although he did not elaborate on the mathematical model in this conversation, the core idea is consistent with his previous articles:
1. Re-anchoring of global wealth: When the global fiat currency system collapses due to unlimited money printing, global wealth needs to find a new and reliable value anchor. Gold and Bitcoin are the only two candidates.
2. Advantages of Bitcoin: Compared to gold, Bitcoin has advantages such as being easy to divide, easy to transfer, easy to verify, and absolutely scarce, making it more suitable as the underlying protocol of the global value internet in the digital age.
3. Scale Estimate: The total amount of investable assets worldwide is in the trillions of dollars. If Bitcoin can capture a small portion of this (e.g., 5%-10%) as a store of value, its total market capitalization would reach tens of trillions of dollars. Dividing this market capitalization by the total supply of 21 million coins yields a price per coin in the hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars.
The core of this scenario is that the crisis triggered by AI will act as a catalyst, greatly accelerating the paradigm shift of the global monetary system from fiat currency to hard assets. Hayes' strategy is essentially making the boldest bet on this unprecedented upheaval.
Chapter 4: The Battlefield of the Future — CBDC, Privacy Coins, and the Quantum Ghost
After outlining the grand macro picture and investment strategies, the conversation delved deeper into several key battlegrounds within the crypto world: the threat of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the necessity of privacy coins, and the potential risks of quantum computing. Hayes' views on these issues further refined his vision of the future digital world order.
4.1 CBDC: A Digital Tool of Enslavement
Hayes' stance on the looming CBDC is unambiguous: it is the ultimate threat to individual freedom and property rights, a tool of digital enslavement.
He believes that CBDC and Bitcoin represent two diametrically opposed futures:
“CBDC is about control. It allows governments to precisely control your consumption behavior… This is the ultimate violation of individual sovereignty.” — Arthur Hayes
Hayes predicts that the government's motivation for promoting CBDCs lies in preparing for the impending crisis. When the government needs to implement large-scale UBI (Usage-Based Income), CBDCs will be the most efficient distribution and control tool. The government can ensure that the "relief funds" you receive can only be used to purchase specific necessities and must be consumed within a certain period to stimulate the economy. This "carrot and stick" model will completely turn individuals into passive implementers of national financial policies.
He believes that the emergence of CBDCs will actually greatly highlight the value of Bitcoin. When people personally experience the lack of freedom brought about by programmable money, they will yearn even more for the "immutable, uncensorable, and self-sovereign" property rights represented by Bitcoin. CBDCs will become the best "reverse advertisement" for Bitcoin.
4.2 The Resurgence of Privacy Coins: Zcash vs. AI Surveillance
While Bitcoin offers pseudo-anonymity, Hayes astutely points out that in the age of AI, this level of privacy is far from sufficient.
“I think the real threat will come from AI tools that can deanonymize your transactions; that’s the real ‘game changer’… If you really need a completely anonymous electronic cash system, Bitcoin may not be the best option.” — Arthur Hayes
His reasons for being optimistic about privacy coins like Zcash are:
• AI's deanonymization capabilities: Powerful AI models can analyze publicly available blockchain data, combined with KYC information from exchanges, social media activity, IP addresses, and other off-chain data, to match Bitcoin addresses with real personal identities with a very high probability. Bitcoin's "pseudo-anonymity" will be easily exposed by AI.
• The necessity of zero-knowledge proofs: To achieve true financial privacy, the traceability link between the sender, receiver, and amount of a transaction must be severed at the protocol level. The zero-knowledge proof technology (zk-SNARKs) used by Zcash was developed for this purpose, enabling it to prove the validity of a transaction to the network without revealing any transaction details.
• Bitcoin's "Icon Baggage": Hayes believes that Bitcoin's core developer community is very conservative and unlikely to add complex privacy features like zero-knowledge proofs to the main protocol, as this would increase the protocol's complexity and potential attack surface. Bitcoin's core value lies in its simplicity, robustness, and reliability.
Therefore, he believes the crypto world will see a functional differentiation: Bitcoin will serve as the ultimate, transparent store of value (digital gold), while privacy coins such as Zcash and Monero will serve as anonymous electronic cash for everyday use. For users who highly value personal privacy in the CBDC era, privacy coins will be indispensable tools.
4.3 Quantum Computing: An Overhyped "Specter"
Hayes remained remarkably calm about the recurring concerns that "quantum computing will crack Bitcoin." He considered it an exaggerated threat, a classic example of "FUD" (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).
His reasoning was:
1. The community's foresight: Bitcoin's core developers and research community have long been aware of the potential threat of quantum computing and have proposed a variety of countermeasures (such as the Schnorr signature introduced in BIP-340, which itself enhances the ability to resist quantum attacks).
2. Evolution of Address Types: The main threat of quantum computing lies in its ability to deduce private keys from public keys. However, in modern Bitcoin transactions, users typically use P2PKH (Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash) or more advanced address types. With these addresses, the public key itself is not exposed on the blockchain until the transaction is spent. As long as users follow the best practice of "not reusing addresses," quantum computers have no way to exploit this vulnerability.
3. The most vulnerable link: The truly threatened are some early address types, especially the P2PK (Pay-to-Public-Key) addresses used by Satoshi Nakamoto himself. These addresses directly expose public keys on the blockchain. However, this portion of Bitcoin represents only a small fraction of the total supply, and the majority remains dormant.
4. Soft fork upgrade path: In the future, when quantum-resistant cryptographic standards mature, the Bitcoin network can smoothly transition to a new signature algorithm through a soft fork, without overturning the entire system.
In summary, Hayes views quantum computing as a long-term problem that can be solved through engineering, rather than an imminent, disruptive existential crisis. He believes that instead of worrying about this distant "specter," we should focus more on the more immediate and realistic challenges such as AI and CBDC.
Chapter 5: A Personal Survival Guide — How to Survive in a Collapsing World
After painting a grand and grim picture of the future, the final part of the dialogue returned to the most practical question: As ordinary individuals, how should we cope with this impending storm? Hayes' advice is not simply investment tips, but a complete philosophy of survival, encompassing mindset adjustment, risk management, and the reshaping of personal values.
5.1 Mindset Adjustment: Accept Reality, Embrace Fluctuations
Haye's first suggestion was to undergo a complete mindset reset.
• Abandon the fiat currency standard: Stop measuring your wealth in fiat currencies (like the US dollar). The purchasing power of fiat currency is constantly being diluted; it's like a melting block of ice. True wealth should be measured in hard assets that you own and that are not controlled by others, such as Bitcoin, gold, or your own skills.
• Embrace uncertainty: The future is chaotic and unpredictable. Don't try to accurately predict every turning point in the market. Accept volatility as part of the new normal; your goal is not to avoid volatility, but to survive and ultimately profit from it.
• Long-term perspective: View Bitcoin as a long-term savings technology, not a short-term speculative tool. Its value lies not in its price next week or next month, but in its ability to protect your purchasing power from inflation over the next ten or twenty years.
5.2 Risk Management: Patience is the Greatest Virtue
In terms of specific actions, Hayes emphasized the importance of discipline and risk management.
• Don't go "all in": Never put all your assets into any single asset, not even Bitcoin. A sound asset allocation is fundamental to survival.
• Wait for signals and build positions in batches: Strictly adhere to the strategy of "waiting for money printing." Maintain ample cash (even if it's depreciating) until macroeconomic signals are confirmed to ensure you can enter the market at the optimal time. When the signal appears, you can buy in batches to smooth out costs and reduce the risk of missing the mark.
• Understand what you're investing in: Don't invest blindly just because you heard the advice of some "guru." Take the time to learn the principles of Bitcoin and the basics of macroeconomics. Only when you truly understand why you're holding it can you remain calm and hold onto your assets during periods of high market volatility.
5.3 Reshaping Personal Value: Becoming a "Questioner" in the AI Era
For younger investors and soon-to-be graduates, Hayes' advice goes beyond finance, pointing directly to how individuals can survive in the AI era.
“Go podcast…Those who can drive conversation and create fresh, unique content will be the most valuable talent in this post-AI society. Give it a try, no matter what your strengths are…You should strive to become that kind of person—someone that AI will want to emulate in every way.” — Arthur Hayes
The deeper meaning of these words is:
• From “Executor” to “Creator”: In an era where AI can efficiently complete all “execution” tasks, human value will be reflected in things that AI cannot do: asking unique questions, generating original ideas, sharing genuine emotional experiences, and creating novel art forms.
• Become a "Prompt Engineer": The power of AI requires human guidance. One of the most valuable skills of the future is the ability to provide high-quality "prompts" to AI, guiding it to produce valuable output. This means you need interdisciplinary knowledge, deep insights, and a rich imagination.
• Embrace your personal brand: In an era where everyone can leverage AI to become a "super individual," building your unique personal brand and reputation is crucial. Whether through writing, podcasts, videos, or other formats, share your knowledge and insights to attract a community that trusts you. This in itself is a powerful and irreplaceable asset.
Ultimately, Hayes' survival guide points to a unified core: whether investing in Bitcoin or planning one's career, the core is to pursue those scarce, authentic things that cannot be infinitely replicated. In a future defined by AI and unlimited money printing, this pursuit of "scarcity" will be the only path for individuals to navigate crises and achieve autonomy.
Conclusion: Ride the lightning, or be swallowed by it?
Arthur Hayes's conversation, like a lightning bolt ripped through the night sky, was both terrifying and strangely prophetic. His description of a financial apocalypse triggered by AI and his grand narrative of Bitcoin as the only salvation are undoubtedly among the boldest and most thought-provoking prophecies of our time.
We must acknowledge that Hayes's argument is not without flaws. He may be overly pessimistic about the speed at which AI will replace white-collar workers, underestimate the wisdom of governments in responding to crises, and be overly optimistic about whether Bitcoin can ultimately shoulder the responsibility of anchoring global wealth. However, these potential flaws do not obscure the powerful penetrating force of his intellectual framework.
He successfully weaves the technological impact of AI, the inherent fragility of the global credit system, geopolitical maneuvering, and the path dependence of central bank monetary policy into a logically consistent and convincing narrative. He forces us to confront a fundamental question: how will our existing economic and social structures be sustained when intelligence itself becomes infinitely cheap? What should be the ultimate form of wealth when the credit foundation of fiat currency is eroded by unlimited debt?
For investors, Hayes offers a set of unconventional wisdom guidelines. It demands extreme patience, profound macroeconomic insight, and the courage to defy herd mentality. This is not just about buying and selling Bitcoin, but about maintaining independent thinking and judgment amidst information overload and market noise.
Hayes' warning holds even greater universal significance for every ordinary person living in this era. It reminds us that the wave of technological change is sweeping in with unprecedented speed and power, and we cannot remain unaffected. Whether choosing to learn new skills to embrace AI or allocating hard assets to combat inflation, we must proactively make choices and take responsibility for our own future.
Ultimately, Arthur Hayes leaves us with an open ending. We stand at a historical juncture, the road ahead fraught with lightning and thunder. We can choose to ignore the warnings and continue reveling in the sinking dance floor; or we can choose to heed the "madman's" prophecy and begin building our own "ark." In any case, the storm is approaching. Whether we ride the lightning or are swallowed by it, the choice ultimately rests in our own hands.
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References
1. Brunell, N. (2026, March 10). Arthur Hayes: The Fed Will Print Again — That's When Bitcoin Explodes [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny9P1l0WKwo
2. MEXC. (March 17, 2026). Arthur Hayes: AI will trigger a financial crisis, forcing the Federal Reserve to restart printing money, and Bitcoin will surge to millions of dollars. https://www.mexc.com/zh-MY/news/930540
3. Hayes, A. (2022, June 27). The Doom Loop. BitMEX Blog. [Related macroeconomic ideas for reference]
4. Minsky, HP (1992). The Financial Instability Hypothesis. The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. [Source of the "Minsky Moment" theory]
