Oil prices have cooled but remain above $90 as the US signals a possible easing of sanctions, allowing approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian oil currently on offshore tankers to return to the market. This is oil already produced by Iran but whose sale has been restricted due to sanctions, and its release would help alleviate short-term price pressure. Simultaneously, Israel is reportedly supporting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and suggesting the conflict could end sooner than expected, raising hopes for a de-escalation of tensions. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain. Citi Bank has raised its short-term oil price forecast to $120 per barrel, with a potential surge to $150 if the escalation is halted. In its base scenario, the bank expects tensions to ease within 4 to 6 weeks, potentially pushing oil prices back to the $70–$80 range by the end of the year.
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