In its report published for mid-March 2026, cryptocurrency management company VanEck revealed that the market has shifted to a significantly defensive position.
According to the report, investor demand for hedging against downside risks reached record levels, while indicators reflecting bearish expectations in the options market saw a significant increase.
In the Bitcoin options market, the put/call open position ratio rose to 0.84, reaching its highest level since June 2021. Over the past 30 days, premiums paid by investors to hedge against declines reached approximately $685 million, while call option premiums, representing bullish expectations, fell by 12% to $562 million. This indicates a strengthening risk-aversion trend among market participants.
During the same period, a significant decrease was observed in volatility and leverage. Bitcoin’s realized volatility fell from approximately 80 to 50, while futures funding rates dropped from 4.1% to 2.7%. This indicates that speculative activity decreased in the market following the sharp price drop, and investors rebalanced their positions more cautiously.
According to VanEck’s analysis, the defensive structure in the options market is reflected not only on the demand side but also in costs. The implied volatility of put options, at approximately 66%, significantly exceeded both the realized volatility and that of call options. This difference reveals that investors are aggressively seeking to hedge against downside risks.
However, historical data points to a remarkable pattern. Similar levels of high “option skew” (puts being more expensive than calls) have historically often been precursors to strong price recoveries. According to data from the last six years, Bitcoin has delivered average 90-day returns of 13% and 360-day returns of 133% following such periods.
On the other hand, on-chain data and miner behavior also confirm the stagnation in the market. While transaction volume decreased by 31% and transaction fees by 27%, a slowdown in the selling rate of long-term investors was observed. It was noted that miners continue to sell the majority of the Bitcoin they produce.
*This is not investment advice.
