Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate of the probability of a US recession to 30%.

Odaily has raised the probability of a US recession within the next 12 months to 30%, up 5 percentage points from its previous forecast, due to soaring oil and gas prices. The energy price shock, coupled with tighter financial conditions caused by the Middle East conflict and the fading effects of President Trump's major tax laws passed last summer, prompted Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius to raise his baseline year-end unemployment rate forecast to 4.6%. Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December. The bank also predicts that US GDP growth in the second half of this year will be below trend, with an annualized growth rate expected to be between 1.25% and 1.75%. Earlier on Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for this year due to the ongoing disruption to energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank stated that the conflict will push up global inflation and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, but in the worst-case scenario, the impact on GDP could double or even triple. (Jinshi)