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US stock trading on Tuesday, March 24, was almost entirely driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical events.
The market is switching back and forth between two narratives: on one hand, the oil price rebound and stagflation concerns brought about by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East; on the other hand, risk appetite has recovered rapidly after diplomatic negotiations released signals of easing tensions.
By the close of trading, all three major indexes had fallen. The S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.84%.
Pre-market: Weak macroeconomic data leads to oil price rebound
Market sentiment cooled again in pre-market trading on Tuesday.
Although Trump's announcement on Monday of a delay in the strikes against Iranian energy facilities initially caused oil prices to fall, by early Tuesday trading, investors began reassessing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for renewed tensions in the Middle East. In other words, the market quickly realized that geopolitical risks had not truly been eliminated, but merely temporarily paused.
At the same time, the latest PMI sent a very unsettling signal to the market: growth is slowing, but inflation is rising.
The US Flash PMI fell to 51.4 in March, a near 11-month low, while business costs and prices rose simultaneously. Data from Europe and the UK were almost identical—economic marginal weakening, but imported cost inflation rose to a more than three-year high. This means that the Middle East conflict is rapidly transmitting "reflationary pressures" globally through energy and supply chains.
During the session: Oil prices, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields all exerted downward pressure.
U.S. stocks opened weakly on Tuesday, influenced by weak macroeconomic data and a rebound in oil prices. WTI crude oil prices climbed back above $90 during the session.
The market's concerns are clear: if oil prices continue to rise, the Federal Reserve's future policy space will be further compressed, interest rates will be difficult to decline smoothly, and highly valued assets will naturally be the first to come under pressure.
As the trading session progressed, sentiment worsened further. Public reports indicated that the United States is deploying 3,000 additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East to bolster its regional operational capabilities. This news significantly escalated market concerns about the spillover effects of the conflict.
The correlation between asset prices thus becomes very clear:
Crude oil continued its upward surge;
US Treasury yields are more likely to rise than fall;
The US dollar remains strong;
The US stock market came under further pressure.
Funds subsequently withdrew from growth stocks and shifted to energy stocks and defensive assets. Energy stocks benefited from rising oil prices and were relatively strong; defensive sectors also showed greater resilience; while technology stocks became one of the most obvious areas of adjustment.
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Amidst overall market pressure, our AI-powered stock selection model from StockWe.com, a US stock big data platform, identified several leading optical communication companies at the market open today. Among them, [stock code 2024111120230] surged nearly 19%, [stock code 2024111120231] rose approximately 10%, [stock code 2024111120232] rose over 10%, [stock code 2024111120233] rose nearly 7%, [stock code 2024111120234] rose 8.43%, and [stock code 2024111120235] rose 5.27%.
It's worth noting that we've already systematically reviewed and highlighted these companies in our previous three in-depth articles:
10 Must-Buy US Stocks in 2026 [CIMC GLW]
The next core opportunity in US AI stocks lies not in GPUs, but in the optoelectronic supply chain.
US Stock Market Size Triples in Three Years! Nvidia Bets on New Track! AAOI FN
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After-hours: Oil prices plunge as peace talks become more anticipated.
Following Trump's statement on Monday that US-Iran communication was "productive" and that the strike would be postponed for five days, several media outlets reported after the market closed on Tuesday that the US was using this five-day window to push for more substantive diplomatic engagement. Trump also stated that Iran was taking the matter seriously and that the possibility of reaching an agreement was increasing.
As expectations for peace talks rose, crude oil futures quickly retreated from their intraday highs, with the market beginning to reassess the geopolitical risk premium previously priced in. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures subsequently strengthened significantly, indicating that funds were beginning to replenish previously sold-off growth stock positions.
Anxiety about AI replacing AI has intensified again.
The software sector suffered a major blow on Tuesday, and the deeper reason is that market concerns about AI eroding traditional software business models have been amplified once again.
According to US Stock Investment Network, Amazon Web Services (AWS) is internally developing a new generation of AI agents. These agents are not intended to assist humans, but rather to directly take over the work previously performed by thousands of technical experts, covering core functions such as network security monitoring and server network maintenance. More significantly, these automated functions directly correspond to the positions affected by Amazon's recent large-scale layoffs, particularly in sales and business development. $AMZN
This trend sends a dangerous signal to the market: tech giants are not only using AI to reduce costs and increase efficiency, but also completely eliminating their reliance on specific human positions through self-developed tools. For traditional SaaS vendors that rely on headcount fees or subscription-based pricing, the disappearance of internal customer positions means a direct shrinkage of their potential market size.
Secondly, the latest upgraded version of Claude, released Monday evening by AI startup Anthropic, further exacerbated this anxiety. The new Claude boasts enhanced desktop control capabilities, enabling it to autonomously perform complex office tasks such as browsing the web, filling out spreadsheets, and even performing cross-application operations.
The accompanying research report, the Anthropic Economic Index, shows that experienced users with advanced AI skills have significantly surpassed novices in productivity, and the application scenarios are rapidly expanding from code writing to administrative, financial, and management decision-making.
While the report also points out that the technology still faces early risks such as data breaches and operational errors, the market is clearly more focused on its potential for substitution: when AI can complete closed-loop tasks independently, the value proposition of traditional collaborative software will face fundamental challenges.
According to US Stock Investment Network, Tuesday's sharp drop in software stocks was not driven by a single event, but rather by a concentrated outbreak of multiple negative factors within a specific time window.
On the macro level, the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to an eight-month high this week, and the rise in risk-free interest rates directly compressed the duration premium of highly valued growth stocks. As a typical long-duration asset, the software sector is extremely sensitive to interest rate changes, and the widening of the denominator in valuation models puts downward pressure on stock prices.
At the industry level, the views expressed by David George, a partner at the well-known venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, have prompted the market to conduct an in-depth review of profitability.
He explicitly stated that software companies have only two paths to survival in the next 12 to 18 months: either achieve an annual revenue growth rate increase of more than 10 percentage points by developing AI-native products, or rebuild their operating profit margin (including equity incentives) to a high level of 40%-50%. This assertion effectively negates the legitimacy of many current business models that rely on inefficient growth to maintain valuations, forcing investors to re-evaluate their targets.
Negative news at the individual stock level also exacerbated the decline. Atlassian (TEAM), a global team collaboration software giant, plunged more than 8% after a research firm released a negative report pointing out that its partner ecosystem's performance was below expectations and that there was a risk of slowdown in its 2026 growth guidance.
Currently, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the technology software sector has fallen below the overall level of the S&P 500 index. This historic inversion signifies a fundamental shift in market expectations. The logic of "recurring revenue" and "high net retention rate" that supported the high valuations of software stocks over the past decade appears extremely fragile in the context of AI agents being able to automatically perform tasks and reduce human intervention.
The dilemma investors face now is that it is difficult to determine whether the current low valuations are a good buying opportunity or a value trap until the impact of AI on enterprise software subscription models evolves from a narrative into a substantial decline in revenue reported in financial statements.
If traditional software vendors cannot prove in the short term that they have the ability to transform into AI-native platforms, or cannot offset the slowdown in revenue growth by significantly increasing profit margins, then the current process of capital destruction may not be over yet.
Looking ahead, the recovery window for the software sector depends on two key variables:
First, can leading manufacturers launch convincing AI-native products and verify their revenue-generating capabilities?
Second, whether the macroeconomic interest rate environment can stabilize.
Prior to this, the market will continue to oscillate between "technological disruption" and "valuation bottom," and volatility is likely to remain high.
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