According to monitoring by Odaily Seer , the probability of "Israel launching an attack on Yemen before March 31, 2026" has increased significantly on Polymarket.
The current probability is 60%, and the average probability over the past 7 days is 18.1%.
On March 28, 2026, the Houthi rebels announced a ballistic missile attack on southern Israel. This was the first time the Houthis had directly launched a military operation against Israeli territory since the recent conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel.
The group claimed to have struck a "sensitive military facility" in southern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed detecting a missile fired from the direction of Yemen and stated that it had successfully intercepted it, with no casualties reported so far.
Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarreya said the move was in response to US and Israeli military operations against targets in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine, and stressed that the operation would continue until the "aggression stops."
Houthi officials have recently issued multiple warnings, stating that blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of their "feasible options." Analysts worry that if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also effectively blocked, following restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, it will cut off key oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping routes from the Middle East to Europe and Asia.
Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
