According to Odaily Seer , the probability of a US invasion of Iran before March 31st has dropped to 11% on Polymarket, down 6% in 24 hours; the probability of a US invasion of Iran before April 30th is currently at 62%, up 3% in 24 hours, with the current trading volume for this event exceeding $42.6 million.
U.S. officials said today that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, which could become a dangerous new phase of the war if President Trump chooses to escalate it. Officials said any potential ground operation would not be a full-scale invasion, but rather a surprise attack by a combination of special operations forces and conventional infantry. Such a mission could expose U.S. personnel to a range of threats, including Iranian drones and missiles, ground fire, and improvised explosive devices. As of Saturday, it was unclear whether Trump would approve or veto all or part of the Pentagon's plans.
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