80% Surpass 113.4 Billion Won, 50% Surpass 151.2 Billion Won… Predicted Market Transaction Volume Alone Exceeds 6 Billion Won
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Today, on PolyMarket, the probability of a bet stating that "BASED's Fully Diluted Value (FDV) will surpass $50 million (KRW 75.6 billion) within one day of listing" reached 91%. Betting on higher targets is also active. The probability of breaking through $75 million (KRW 113.4 billion) was recorded at 80%, and the probability of breaking through $100 million (KRW 151.2 billion) at 50%. This demonstrates that market participants strongly anticipate an explosive surge in the BASED token shortly after listing.
Currently, the total transaction volume of this prediction event has exceeded $4 million (6 billion KRW). Polymarket is a platform where participants bet real money to predict the outcomes of future events, and the betting patterns of the participants reflect market expectations. The exceptionally high odds and transaction volume regarding the BASED token demonstrate the market's intense interest in the project.
PolyMarket's betting results serve as a leading indicator for gauging investment sentiment in the virtual asset market. The overwhelming bullish bet on the BASED token is interpreted as a signal that the market's risk appetite for new token listings remains high. However, an extremely high probability of 91% could reflect excessive optimism among market participants, posing a risk of a discrepancy between expectations and reality after the actual listing. If PolyMarket's prediction proves accurate, the BASED token will immediately join the ranks of major projects upon listing, which is expected to influence the listing strategies of other new tokens. Conversely, if the prediction is wrong, it could negatively impact the credibility of the prediction market and investor sentiment toward the new token.
Choi Joo-hoon joohoon@blockstreet.co.kr
