Analysis: Profitability for long-term BTC holders has plummeted to 3%, and market bottom signals have not yet been triggered.

According to an article published on CryptoQuant by on-chain analyst MorenoDV_ (@MorenoDV_), the adjusted unrealized net profit (NUPL) of BTC long-term holders (LTH) is approaching a critical turning point, but a market bottom signal has not yet been triggered. Since its peak on October 6, 2025, LTH profitability has compressed sharply from 58% to 3% in 142 days, reflecting a significant deterioration in investor sentiment and position structure. However, LTH-NUPL is currently still slightly above zero and has not yet entered the full liquidation range historically necessary for a market bottom. The analyst points out that historically, true market bottoms have formed after LTH holdings have turned completely unprofitable; the current environment is closer to the end-of-cycle stress phase than a complete liquidation. It is recommended to pay close attention to signals where LTH-NUPL continues to fall below zero, accompanied by a long-term compression of price and volatility, a condition that historically coincides highly with asymmetric entry opportunities.