Bernstein: Crypto stocks are trading at a significant discount; COIN is essentially "unsellable."

Mars Finance reported on March 30th that Bernstein stated that cryptocurrency-related stocks are trading at a "significant discount" after a broad decline, and current valuations reflect weak short-term sentiment rather than long-term growth potential. In a report to clients on Monday, the research and brokerage firm noted that stocks related to digital asset infrastructure—including trading platforms, brokers, and tokenization platforms—have fallen approximately 60% from recent highs, despite continued expansion in underlying markets such as stablecoins, derivatives, prediction markets, and tokenized real-world assets. Bernstein expects the current weakness to persist until the first-quarter earnings season before stabilizing. Given this, analysts believe the first-quarter earnings season may have formed a bottom. This view aligns with the firm's recent stance that some of the sell-off in cryptocurrency stocks—including those related to Circle and concerns stemming from US regulations—may have become excessively detached from fundamentals. Bernstein maintained its "Outperform" rating on Coinbase (ticker symbol: CCOIN0%) but lowered its price target from $440 to $330. Despite weak trading volumes in the first quarter, analysts expect earnings growth to remain robust. They also forecast revenue expansion at a CAGR of approximately 26% through 2027. Bernstein believes stablecoins will bear the brunt of growth, with Coinbase accounting for about half of Circle's USDC revenue, while derivatives and newer products are beginning to contribute more to the revenue mix. The report also highlights that subscription and service revenue, including stablecoin revenue, provides a buffer against cryptocurrency price volatility, although spot trading volumes remain cyclical. This assertion echoes Bernstein's previous view that Coinbase stock is "too cheap to sell," when the firm emphasized that rising trading volumes and product expansion would provide significant upside potential.