A new paper from Fed board economists concludes that "breakeven" job growth is near zero, which means negative job growth would be almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month even if the economy is at equilibrium.
The so-what-statement:
"It would not be unusual for there to be one or more months in 2026 with declines in total payroll employment as large as -100,000 jobs, even if economic output was growing at the rate of potential output growth."
The paper suggests labor force growth is running at less than 10,000 per month: "Such a slowdown in potential labor force growth is unprecedented in recent history and would have significant implications for the U.S. economy." federalreserve.gov/econres/not...…
Nick Timiraos
@NickTimiraos
04-02
Dallas Fed: Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is lower than previously thought and could be slightly negative.
Monthly job change of -3,000 per month would have been enough to
Could be a consequence of Trump’s immigration policy
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