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On March 30th, Duan Yongping publicly reversed his stance, retracting his previous statement that he would not invest in Pop Mart. The timing is delicate—Pop Mart had just released its strongest financial report ever (revenue of 37.1 billion yuan, net profit of 13.1 billion yuan, and a net profit margin of 35%, comparable to Kweichow Moutai), yet its stock price plummeted 22% on the day the report was released, falling from a high of HK$339 to HK$146, a drop of more than half. What did Duan Yongping see? My judgment: He's following the same path he took when investing in Pinduoduo—"He doesn't understand the business model, but he understands the people." Wang Ning's deliberate braking in the best-performing year (guiding only 20% growth) is likely not seen as negative news by Duan Yongping, but rather as the strongest signal of the company's culture. But Pop Mart is not Kweichow Moutai. Its current market capitalization is three times that of Sanrio (Hello Kitty's parent company, with a 50-year history), Funko's collapse is imminent, and LABUBU contributes nearly 40% of its revenue. The demand for emotional value is eternal, but the lifespan of the medium is not. I've written a research report covering the reasons for the market crash, Duan Yongping's complete logic chain, and three valuation scenarios. It's available for those interested; please read it on my WeChat official account—the formatting is much better than X. mp.weixin.qq.com/s/O_SplaVINFa...

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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