Citadel Securities believes that the worst-case extreme risks from a conflict in Iran have been “significantly mitigated,” opening up upside potential for both equity and bond markets.
This assessment, presented by Nohshad Shah, suggests that the risks of a worst-case scenario are diminishing as the parties involved tend to seek to de-escalate geopolitical tensions.
Stock and bond markets are poised for a bull run as the risk of war decreases.
Shah wrote in a news report that the Iranian leadership is primarily focused on maintaining the regime . At the same time, China also has strong incentives to promote de-escalation of the conflict. These two factors suggest that the likelihood of military escalation will be significantly reduced.
"What happens next will become clearer in the coming weeks, but the most important thing for the market is that we've almost eliminated the most extreme risk of a worst-case scenario," Shah stated.
Despite the US-led blockade of the Hormuz region , Shah maintained his stance that a solution to the crisis was gradually emerging. He argued that the "final stage" of the conflict was near, with both Washington and Tehran suffering significant losses if tensions continued.
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The US stock market also seems to agree with this assessment. According to data from Google Finance, the S&P 500 index rose 1.02% on Monday to 6,886 points. To date, the index has almost recovered all of its losses since the Iran conflict began in late February 2026.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.23%, the Russell 2000 gained 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6%. This rally continued last week's success, when the S&P 500 recorded its longest winning chain since October 2025.
Previously, BitMine chairman Tom Lee also predicted that the stock market had Dip and that the indices could reach new highs this year.
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