Bitwise claims "$1 million is just the starting price for Bitcoin": Geopolitical conflicts catalyze BTC settlement demand, and chaos is a ladder to price increases.

There's a common misconception in traditional financial markets that Bitcoin (BTC) will be sold off like high-risk tech stocks during global geopolitical crises. However, recent market data has drastically shattered this stereotype and prompted Wall Street institutions to rethink their valuation frameworks for Bitcoin.

"Chaos is a ladder": BTC bucks the trend and surges, while gold and US stocks both fall.

In a recent client memo released on Tuesday, Bitwise CFO Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen stated that Bitcoin's recent strong performance is not contradictory to the "risk-off" environment, but rather a "direct result" of risk-averse sentiment.

The data speaks for itself: Since the US and Israel launched airstrikes on February 28, Bitcoin has surged 12% against the trend, while the S&P 500 has fallen 1% during the same period, and traditional safe-haven asset gold has plummeted by 10%.

In response to this dramatic polarization, Bitwise quoted a classic line from the popular TV series *Game of Thrones*: "Chaos is a ladder." Analysts believe that Bitcoin's counter-trend rebound stems from the conflict itself; as cracks appear in the global financial system, the appeal of "neutral, non-sovereign currencies" is rapidly increasing.

Bitcoin's "Double Bet": Not Just Digital Gold, But Also a Settlement Currency

Bitwise reframes Bitcoin's investment value as "Two bets in one":

1. Challenging Gold (Storage of Value): This is the first layer of logic most familiar to the market, namely, digital gold as a hedge against inflation and a store of value.
2. International trade settlement currency: This is the second layer of logic that was often overlooked by the market in the past, but is now rapidly gaining recognition.

Experts point out that the root of this shift lies in the "weaponization of financial infrastructure." Since Russia was kicked out of the SWIFT network in 2022, global trade flows have begun to shift to alternative systems (especially China), causing the dollar's dominance to be eroded on the periphery and creating space for non-dollar payment tracks.

Recently, it has been reported that Iran is willing to accept Bitcoin in payments related to oil transportation, sending a strong experimental signal: the fragmentation of geopolitics is forcing sanctioned countries to actively explore "depoliticized" alternatives.

Valuation model redesign: $1 million will become the benchmark floor price

In this dynamic context, Bitwise likens Bitcoin's monetary use case to an "out-of-the-money call option." The value of this option explodes exponentially as the probability of widespread adoption increases and global volatility intensifies. And now, both conditions are met simultaneously.

This means that Bitcoin's role is evolving: it is not only a speculative asset linked to liquidity cycles, but also the ultimate tool for hedging against geopolitical disorder.

Bitwise concludes that if Bitcoin can simultaneously capture market share in both "store of value demand" and "global transaction liquidity," then current price predictions severely underestimate its potential. From a new strategic perspective, the firm believes that $1 million will become Bitcoin's future "baseline," rather than an unattainable ceiling .

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